Another interesting US Presidential election has come and gone – and there will be lots of comments over the next few days before this blog is posted – but I just wanted to put out a few random thoughts for consideration.
The US legislative branch is fundamentally no different than before this election. The Congress is controlled by farther-right Republicans who will do anything they can to avoid an increase in taxes to retire the national debt and are all about cutting services to reduce the debt. The Senate is still controlled – even more so – by left and moderate-left Democrats who seem to want to both raise taxes on upper-income taxpayers and are willing to reduce some services – by how much is the big issue!
The White House is just the same with President Obama – left-leaning Democrat – but now the popular vote seems to be with him and Senate folks and combined against the Congress. Can they all work together or will there be another stalemate as there has been for much of the past 2-years?
Investors don’t like uncertainty or instability – anywhere. I am not an economist (thankfully) but I think things will be shaky on the markets for certainly the rest of this year and past Inauguration Day in 2013 until people get a handle on how The Executive Branch and Legislative Branches can or will work together. Despite all the talk about being willing to work “across the aisle” – I have my doubts. Which doesn’t bode well for the Excited States as a whole.
I suspect the housing markets are going to be very lacklustre and a great many States are going to be very hard-pressed to come in with balanced budgets – California being a huge question-mark despite Jerry Brown’s tax plan getting voter approval.
My personal belief is that anyone looking for short-term stability in world financial-markets is going to be in for a great deal of disappointment until sometime around the end of 2013 or early 2014 so ensuring a good financial foundation should be a key for everyone!