And a Happy New Year to all!

, T-bnAs we finally close 2012, there are many things on which we can reflect. The sad, the inexplicable, the disappointing and yes, some good things too – from an investment perspective anyway!

Canadian banks and other financial institutions, despite a credit downgrade late in the year, are among the safest in the world and investors continue to benefit from holding their preferred shares, common stocks and various debt instruments. The same appears true for the utility industry, despite the contretemps of the Northern Gateway (or maybe Arctic Gateway or Eastern Gateway) oil pipeline in Canada and the US side of the Canada/US Keystone XL pipeline project. Oil is a key utility input in all of it’s many forms as is natural gas. I will stay out of the debate on fracking!

The world needs power – from any and all sources so I believe that for long-term holdings, exposure to this part of the economy is important. Short-term, be prepared for some storms in all of the energy sector, and I suspect they will all be of a political making. So some inclusion of energy and utlities makes some sense – the amount you include depends on your investment comfort level and time-horizon.

Communications in all of it’s forms will continue to grow although I suspect it too will be choppy due to anti-trust, patent issues and regulatory meddling on one level or another. Manufacturing and transportation industries should experience reasonable grow as I believe that deficit and national debts will gradually be controlled allowing economies to begin expanding again.

Whether doing your equities on a do-it-yourself basis or using some form of managed funds or ETFs, I would be staying blue-chip common shares and preferreds particularly for the risk-adverse.

Short-term interest rates (10 years and less), I believe will stay within about 1% to 1.5% of curent levels, which is positive for everyone including companies loooking to expand their operations. If doing things on your own, I recommend GIC or GIA ladders and if you are going the managed fund or ETF route, then I would be looking at average term-to-maturity south of 10 years and only A or better ratings – BBB if you feel adventurous.

On the pure cash side of things, whether in a bank account, T-bill account or some life insurance cash values, it seems to make sense to hold somewhere in the 5% to 7% range – both for protection and any buying opportunities that present themselves.

On Precious Metals – flip a coin! From everything I can find, the “experts” are about evenly divided on direction and potential upside/downside movement. Some level of exposure would seem reasonable if you can tolerate the earthquake-style market reactions but for these I would personally stay on the managed money side and look for broad diversification across countries keeping in mind political situations and I wouldn’t be comfortable holding more than 4% to 5% and only then if I was looking in the 10 plus-year holding range.

Think positive about yourself and your family, keep personal debts going DOWN and by wise in your discretionary spending in 2013!

Some happy year-end thoughts!

An interesting year on many fronts – financial and societal. But have I learned anything I can use in the future? From a financial perspective, I very strongly believe we are going to get more of the same in 2013 that we had in 2012 – notwithstanding the “fiscal cliff” nonsense taking place in the Untied States (deliberate). Resolved or not, my best assessment is that world markets will be slightly chaotic for at least the next 2 years before some level of stability re-appears. Am I psychic?? Absolutely not – but I am a fiscal realist. On a relative basis, Canada is better off that just about everwhere in the world with the exception of New Zealand. For my younger audience, NZ did go bankrupt as a country about 30 years ago – and ever since have kept things fiscally responsible.

Canada may be the best of a bad lot, but we are certainly not having the country’s finances managed in any way, shape or form in a conservative manner. Quite frankly (and I am not, have not been and never expect to be a member of ANY political party), our proclivite spending habits are much more reminiscent of Liberal and NDP spending patterns.

Over the past 18 months or so, there has been a real shift around the world to a more socialistic approach to all levels of government. Citizens of all countries are demanding more services and support from their governments yet no-one wants to pay the price. It is the same in North America, Europe, South America, the Far,Middle and Near-Easts plus the former Soviet states, the Indian sub-continent and Australasia. The people in the Sahara and sub-Saharan regions in Africa are facing even more serious issues of civil wars and genocoide, on one or more levels. The Scandinavian folks are much quieter about things in their part of the world, but they are facing the same issues as the rest of the Eurozone as our our friends in Iceland.

Governments have no money, unless they print more – which brings inflation back into the picture in a big way – something no-one in the world can afford. Some parts of South America are dealing with double-digit inflation now – but on a WEEKLY basis – not annually! So with no money for governments to spend, national debts are growing in leaps and bounds (regardless of the “blue” colours of some leaders), from where does the money originate?

People are still hesitant to invest for the long-term and are spooked every time a politician anywhere in the world, talks about defaulting, restructuring, devaluing or cutting deficits without raising taxes. All of which makes for choppy markets. Yes the Warren Buffet’s and George Soros’ of this world will always make money, because they take the long view.

I haven’t mentioned China and South Korea (or the rest of the Asian-Pacific Rim countries) because despite generally higher levels of “state” control over their economies, they are in no better shape. Closed and partly closed economies may appear to be doing better, but we never really see the complete truth – so in the absence of clarity, investors tend to shy away from them as well.

So what to do now? Stay happy and think positive thoughts! Stay short on the fixed-income side of things and use GIC or GIA ladders to protect yourself against upward movement in rates. Keep at least 5% to 7% in cash. In equities, for less than 15 years holding, stay with large caps that have good dividend histories, or mutual funds/seg funds that hold those stocks. For 15 years and longer – right now, your guess is as good as anyone’s! Have a safe and happy Christmas Season! Cheers Ian