CIRO has approved prediction markets trading in Canada — here's what Wealthsimple Predict means for you

While not the first to market — Interactive Brokers Canada was the first to get a license and offer limited access to forecast contracts — Wealthsimple is the first to partner with a juggernaut in the predictions market, U.S.-based Kalshi. As a result, Wealthsimple plans to roll out its stand-alone regulated prediction markets trading app to everyday investors.

But the product launch comes against a backdrop of growing regulatory scrutiny — and stark warnings from Canada’s securities watchdog.

What is ‘prediction markets’ trading?

Prediction markets, sometimes called information or event markets, let traders take a position on the outcome of real-world events. Each contract frames a yes-or-no question — for example, will Canada’s inflation rate rise in Q3? — and settles at $1 if the outcome is yes, or $0 if it is not.

The price of a contract at any point reflects the market’s collective probability estimate. A contract trading at $0.70, for instance, signals a 70% chance of a yes outcome. Traders can buy or sell contracts before settlement, allowing them to exit as new information moves prices.

Prediction markets are also being used as a hedging tool. As Brett Huneycutt, Wealthsimple’s co-founder and chief product officer (CPO), wrote in a recent company blog post: “Event contracts also let people and businesses hedge real exposures. For instance, a borrower worried about rising rates can balance that with a prediction market contract that pays off if rates climb.”

How big is this market — and why now?

Prediction markets have been growing rapidly. The global prediction market volume topped US$51 billion last year and is expected to reach US$240 billion in 2026, although the anticipated growth of the predictive market has not been independently verified.

“Prediction markets are the fastest-growing segment of global financial markets, letting traders turn an opinion into a position on the factors that shape our world — where inflation is headed, what happens to rates, or how the year unfolds. Until now, Canadians have had limited access,” said Huneycutt in the company’s official press release.

The Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO), which regulates investment dealers in Canada, authorized Wealthsimple to offer event and forecast contract trading in March 2026. The contracts are regulated as futures (derivatives), and the approval covers contracts with a 30-day settlement period or longer, across three categories: economic indicators, financial markets and climate.

Wealthsimple is only the second investment dealer to receive this approval from CIRO. The first was Interactive Brokers Canada.

What does Wealthsimple Predict actually offer?

At launch, Wealthsimple Predict will offer access to nearly 4,000 event contracts through a partnership with Kalshi, the leading U.S. prediction exchange. The contracts represent a subset of Kalshi’s listings that fall within the categories CIRO has approved for Canadian investors — economic indicators, financial markets and climate.

The app will be separate from Wealthsimple’s main platform. New users will need to complete a Know Your Client (KYC) process, consistent with the standard required for self-directed brokerage accounts. According to Wealthsimple press material, education is built into every stage of the onboarding process, including a guided orientation before users place their first trade. The app also displays key risk disclosures, contract resolution timelines and liquidity risk warnings on lower-activity markets.

What are the risks — and what regulators want you to know

Prediction markets are zero-sum: Every dollar earned by one trader is a dollar lost by another. There is no underlying asset providing a fallback if you lose.

Huneycutt acknowledged this in his Wealthsimple blog post: “All of which is why it’s so important to trade only what you are comfortable losing.”

As Ilana Keleman, spokesperson for the Canadian Securities Administrators (CSA), the umbrella body for Canada’s provincial and territorial securities regulators, told Money.ca: prediction markets may involve products considered securities, derivatives or both under Canadian law — and that anyone trading or facilitating trading in such contracts must follow applicable registration and recognition requirements. She explained that Canadians should avoid using platforms that do not comply with Canadian securities laws.

“Canadians should avoid using platforms that are not registered with or recognized by a Canadian securities regulator as they present significant risks to customers because investors’ assets may not be adequately safeguarded.”

The CSA’s caution stems partly from the track record of offshore alternatives. In April 2025, the Ontario Securities Commission (OSC) reached a settlement with the former and current operators of Polymarket, a U.S.-based blockchain prediction market accessible to Canadians. The OSC found both operators had offered binary options to Ontario investors in violation of Multilateral Instrument 91-102, which prohibits binary options with a term to maturity under 30 days. Neither operator was registered in any Canadian jurisdiction.

The regulated vs. unregulated divide

The distinction between a CIRO-approved platform like Wealthsimple Predict and an offshore platform like Polymarket is not merely administrative. Regulated platforms are required to maintain surveillance systems to detect and report insider trading, submit to KYC requirements, and ensure client assets are properly safeguarded. Offshore platforms offer no such protections.

The CSA and CIRO jointly published an advisory earlier this year, reminding both the investment industry and investors of the securities law applicable to prediction markets.

To date, no prediction market has been recognized as an exchange or registered as a dealer by the CSA — meaning Wealthsimple’s CIRO approval covers the investment dealer function, but the underlying exchange — operated by Kalshi — remains a non-Canadian entity.

Wealthsimple says it selected Kalshi specifically because it is a regulated U.S. exchange that maintains surveillance across all markets and participants, and has controls in place to identify insider trading. Also, the app will not offer contracts on violence, terrorism or death — categories available on some offshore platforms.

What to do now, as an investor

If you’re interested in using your investment funds as trades on prediction markets, be sure to check and confirm that the exchange is on the CSA national registration database.

If decide to trade using prediction markets be sure to keep the following in mind: