Jun 11, 2026
Since the Iran war began in February, concerns over fuel shortages have loomed large as the Strait of Hormuz’s usability came into question raising concerns over the price of transportation. The Strait carries around 25% of the global seaborne crude oil trade.
Back in April, the International Energy Agency (IEA) pulled no punches about jet fuel shortages, saying that Europe had only six weeks of jet fuel supply left.
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But as the busy summer travel season approaches, airlines are assuaging these concerns, saying major fuel shortages are not coming down the pike.
“There is no fuel shortage affecting our operations, including across Europe, and we do not anticipate any significant impact through the summer,” a marketing email from Air Canada states.
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European airline Lufthansa shared a similar sentiment in an online post, saying, “most European airlines are confident there will be no jet fuel shortage this summer.” Back in April, Lufthansa cut 20,000 short-haul flights saying the decision would save approximately 40,000 tonnes of jet fuel.
Data from aviation analytics firm Cirium is also showing that even with the increased cost of fuel and concerns due to supply disruptions, mass cancellations aren’t materializing. In fact, seating for travel from Canada to Britain, France and Japan was essentially unchanged in May compared to the month prior.
“Any reductions in the supply of seats is [sic] minimal, even with the increased cost of fuel, despite the geopolitical climate, inflation and that the euro has gained marginally on the Canadian dollar,” Mike Arnot, spokesperson for Cirium, told the Globe and Mail.
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That said, some airlines have seen some cancellations. Cirium data showed that WestJet dropped off around 1.2% of its seats to Europe since the start of the war.
Similarly, the director general of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), Willie Walsh, told Reuters in an interview last week that soaring jet fuel prices are likely to push airlines into a corner, forcing bankruptcy and the consolidation of multiple airlines.
“Unfortunately, I think there will be some carriers that will find this high fuel price very difficult to cope with,” Walsh told the outlet, pointing to the collapse of U.S.-based Spirit Airlines as a case of strain from fuel prices.
Canadian travellers are not out of the woods yet
While the Iran war has caused economic hardship and tension for months, Canadian travellers can find some solace in the fact that their summer trip likely won’t be cancelled. But that doesn’t mean that they’re out of the woods yet. The trickle-down of fuel prices from carriers to consumers is still a possibility, according to experts, though markets are in a confusing position.
The latest jet fuel price data from the IATA shows that the commodity has dropped in price every week from May 8th onwards — save for the week ending June 5th, when they rose 3.3% from the prior seven-day period. Additionally, jet fuel price data from Cirium shows that prices have largely corrected since the February jump, thanks to alternative sources of fuel from outside the Middle East, though prices are still well above pre-crisis levels.
Matt Smith, the director of commodity research for Kpler, a data and analytics firm, told CBC News that demand for crude oil has fallen over concerns regarding the Strait of Hormuz, which is helping to mitigate price increases.
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However, Smith admits that the markets are giving confusing feedback, given the lack of inventory.
“The reality is supplies are dropping every single day here and have been drying up for the last three months.... Everybody is scratching their heads,” he told the outlet.
Smith was clear in his interview with CBC that if the supply of oil or jet fuel continues to fall and the Strait of Hormuz is not a reliable route, prices could take off.
“When we get there, it’s going to be too late, and we really could see prices ripping higher from here,” Smith told CBC.
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How summer flyers can make the most of the season
So it looks like Canadian summer flyers don’t have major cause for concern: it doesn’t appear that flights will be cancelled en masse, while fuel prices have stabilized in the meantime. But that said, the best financial decisions are made strategically, not under pressure. That means acting with the information you have now but keeping in mind potential risks.
So, how should Canadians looking to fly this summer find ways to save money on their flights, just in case prices do take a jump? Here are some simple tips to start.
- Always book in advance, but don’t try to time markets. If fuel costs continue to climb, airlines will be more likely to pass along the added cost to consumers as their departure dates approach. Booking a few months in advance can help you lock in favourable pricing instead of risking fare hikes in the coming months.
- Use technology to your advantage. Apps like Google Flights, Hopper and Skyscanner allow users to track their preferred routes and set up notifications when costs for their destination drop. This is more reliable than manually checking for deals, especially as competition heats up during the summer months.
- Be flexible with your travel dates. Changing your flight day to a Tuesday or Wednesday versus a Friday can potentially mean hundreds of dollars in savings. Early morning or red-eye flights can also come with a lower price tag. Small changes in your schedule can reap large rewards.
- Dip into your rewards points. Reward points such as Aeroplan or WestJet Rewards can become more cost-effective when ticket prices are high — whether due to demand or fuel price surges. If your travel credit card offers additional companion fares or travel insurance perks, using rewards points can result in substantial savings.
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Bottom line
For now, Canadians' summer travel plans are not in jeopardy. But analysts warn that if the situation in the Middle East doesn’t improve, and the supply of jet fuel continues to shrink, travellers could be in for a price surge later this year. The threat of rising prices does not call for Canadian flyers to panic this summer, but they should plan their flights strategically to reduce the risk of a possible price surge.
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Brett Surbey is a corporate paralegal with KMSC Law LLP and freelance writer who has written for Yahoo Finance Canada, Success Magazine, Publishers Weekly, U.S. News & World Report, Forbes Advisor and multiple academic journals. He and his family live in northern Alberta, Canada.
