Jul 7, 2026
Most investors know that bull markets don’t last forever. But when the head of the world’s most powerful bank says “it will stop” — while global geopolitical tensions keep building — it’s worth paying attention, especially if you have money in a Registered Retirement Savings Plan (RRSP) or Tax-Free Savings Account (TFSA).
Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase (JPM), made waves in June 2026 when he described the current bull run as a force nearly impossible to contain. “We’re in a bull market. It’s like a little tsunami,” he said at a Council on Foreign Relations event on June 15. “When that kind of thing happens, it’s very hard to stop. But it will stop.”
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His warning came at a time when North American stock markets have been climbing to record highs despite a long list of serious concerns — a war in the Middle East, spiking oil prices and rising tensions between Russia and China. And it hits close to home for Canadian investors: The S&P/TSX Composite Index hit a record intraday high of 35,629.89 on June 17, 2026, up more than 31% year-over-year. If Dimon is right, what happens to your RRSP and TFSA when the tension breaks?
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What caught Dimon off-guard about the economy
Dimon acknowledged that several powerful forces have kept markets climbing. He pointed to roughly US$700 billion (C$972 billion) in AI-related spending from the largest technology companies, a U.S. unemployment rate near 4.3%, and economic growth running around 2% in early 2026.
But Dimon said he’s been caught off-guard by how relaxed investors have been, given how unstable the world is right now. He pointed to ongoing tensions with Iran, Russia and China as forces that matter enormously for the free world — even if they aren’t hurting the economy today. “I am surprised... that stuff is really important for the free world, but it’s not necessarily the economy today,” he said.
The U.S.-Iran conflict, in particular, led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz — a critical shipping route that handles about 20% of the world’s oil supply — blocking the movement of oil, fertilizers and other energy products and pushing commodity prices significantly higher. For nearly four months, financial markets mostly ignored it.
Since the start of the conflict, both the technology-heavy Nasdaq and the S&P 500 indexes are up about 15% and 9%, respectively.
“I do think the probability of something bad happening is higher than I think it’s probably embedded in the market,” Dimon said, adding that he believes investors are underestimating the odds of inflation sticking around longer than they expect.
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What this means for the Canadian economy
Canada isn’t only watching these forces from the sidelines. The economy slipped into a technical recession in early 2026, with GDP shrinking for two consecutive quarters before showing signs of recovery in April. The Bank of Canada (BoC) has held its overnight rate at 2.25% — after one of the fastest rate-cutting cycles in its history, dropping from 5.0% to 2.25% in October 2025 — and mixed signals have left it on hold for now.
Canada’s unemployment rate stood at 6.6% in May 2026 — well above the U.S. rate — as the job market has been weakening under the pressure of slower immigration and trade uncertainty. Major Canadian banks forecast economic growth of around 1.3% for 2026 — well below the pace needed to get the economy fully back on track.
Meanwhile, Canadian gasoline prices rose roughly 33% compared to a year earlier by May 2026, pushing overall inflation to a surprise 3.2% — the highest it had been since September 2023. That jump in energy costs is squeezing household budgets at the same time investment portfolios are hitting record highs.
That gap — between what portfolios look like on paper and what households feel at the gas pump — is exactly the kind of tension Dimon is talking about.
Dimon’s recent economic anxiety
Dimon has been raising alarms for months. Earlier in 2026, he pointed to past financial crashes — including the market collapse of 1987 and the global financial crisis of 2008 — warning that the current wave of investor excitement is pushing stock prices to levels that can only end in a sharp drop. Much of that excitement is influenced by more than US$700 billion (C$972 billion) in AI-related spending from the largest tech companies, with little sign of it slowing down.
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“There will be a cycle one day,” Dimon said in February 2026. “I don’t know what confluence of events will cause that cycle. My anxiety is high over it. I’m not assuaged by the fact that asset prices are high. In fact, I think that adds to the risk.”
His bigger concern runs deeper: specifically slow-moving forces shifting beneath the economy — the kind of slow pressure that doesn’t show up in a company’s quarterly earnings report but reshapes the landscape over years.
Cycles don’t end with a warning. They end when no one expects them to. And for Canadians with RRSPs and TFSAs invested in index funds and stock portfolios that closely track global markets, that matters.
What Canadians can do now
Dimon’s warning isn’t a call to sell everything or abandon your investment strategy. Markets have proved doubters wrong before, and long-term investors have historically been rewarded for staying invested through volatility. But it’s a good reason to take a closer look at whether your registered accounts are ready for the kind of instability he is describing.
Review your asset allocation
The S&P/TSX Composite Index is already heavily concentrated in financials (~33%), energy (~17%) and materials (~18%) — together making up roughly two-thirds of the index. If your RRSP or TFSA holds a Canadian index fund or exchange-traded fund (ETF) without broader global diversification, you may be more vulnerable to a drop in any one of those sectors than you realize. A well-diversified portfolio that includes Canadian stocks, international stocks and bonds tends to soften the blow when markets fall.
Use registered accounts strategically
The 2026 RRSP contribution limit is $33,810, or 18% of prior-year earned income, whichever is lower. The 2026 TFSA annual limit is $7,000. These registered accounts are more than just a way to avoid paying tax — they’re the most powerful tools most Canadians have to grow wealth over time. That said, how you prioritize putting money into these accounts is as important as how much.
Don’t try to time the market
One way to use that room without stress is dollar-cost averaging (DCA). Putting in a fixed amount at regular intervals means you naturally buy more units when prices are low and fewer when prices are high. Over time, this tends to lower the average price you pay per unit. For most Canadian investors, the TFSA is the best place to do this because tax-free growth means every dollar you earn in the account stays there — and taking money out doesn’t affect how much tax you pay on your other income.
Keep an emergency fund outside your investments
One of the most common mistakes investors make during a market downturn is being forced to sell at a loss because they need cash. Keeping three to six months of living expenses in a high-interest savings account (HISA) means a market drop doesn’t have to turn into a personal financial crisis.
Consider speaking with a financial adviser
If Dimon’s warning is keeping you up at night, that’s a signal worth acting on — not by panic-selling, but by having an honest conversation with a qualified financial adviser about how much risk you’re comfortable taking, and how long you plan to invest. FP Canada offers a planner directory to find a registered financial adviser whose certification is in good standing.
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Joseph Zeballos-Roig is a policy and politics journalist based in Washington D.C with a focus on economics. He is experienced in connecting the significance of events in the capital to the lives of everyday Americans whether its taxes, tariffs, interest rates or federal programs.
