May 13, 2026
If you quietly shelved your U.S. travel plans this year, you are far from alone. New research out of the University of Toronto's School of Cities suggests that Canadian visits to American cities have declined by approximately 42% year over year — a figure significantly larger than what border crossing data alone had indicated.
The analysis, which used anonymized cell phone location data to track cross-border movement, covered 267 U.S. cities. Of those, only three saw an increase in Canadian visits compared to the previous year (1).
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That is not just a travel story. It is a personal finance story — one that affects what Canadians spend, where they go and how long the economic standoff between Ottawa and Washington could reshape everyday decisions.
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It's not just Canadian tourists staying home
The assumption most people make is that fewer Canadians visiting the U.S. means fewer people going to Disney World or Las Vegas. The University of Toronto data tells a more complicated story.
High-profile tourist destinations did see declines. But so did major commercial hubs: New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Dallas and Houston all registered significant drops in Canadian visits.
Researchers Karen Chapple, Yihoi Jung and Jeff Allen attribute those reductions not to fewer vacationers, but to fewer business travellers.
"High-tech and financial centres like San Francisco and Houston appear to be experiencing reductions not only in tourists but also in business-related travel, reflecting changing travel preferences due to broader economic uncertainties on both sides of the border," the researchers wrote (2).
Mid-sized cities felt it too. Grand Rapids, Michigan — which has close ties to Ontario's automotive sector — recorded the second-largest drop in Canadian visits in the dataset. Researchers linked that directly to the tariff uncertainty disrupting the auto supply chain that spans both countries.
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What does a 42% drop actually mean?
Border crossing statistics had previously suggested Canadian tourism to the U.S. was down roughly 25%. The cell phone analysis puts that figure closer to 42% — a gap that matters because it captures a wider range of travel behaviour, including short business trips, day travel and visits that do not involve an overnight stay.
As a newly founded hub within The University of Toronto for city research, education and engagement and outreach, The School of Cities new data shows that the Canadian pullback from the U.S. is deeper and broader than official counts suggested, and extends well beyond leisure travel.
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That has implications for how long the rebound might take. After COVID-19, it took approximately three years for Canadian visits to U.S. cities to recover to pre-pandemic levels. The current decline is being driven by policy choices rather than public health restrictions — and, as of May 2025, these choices remain active.
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What this costs Canadians — and what it signals
For individual Canadians, the math is fairly straightforward. A weaker Canadian dollar, retaliatory tariffs on goods crossing the border and a general chill in Canada–U.S. relations have made American travel feel both more expensive and, for many, less appealing.
The dollar differential alone changes the arithmetic on a U.S. trip. Accommodation, dining and activities priced in U.S. dollars cost more in Canadian terms when the exchange rate is unfavourable — and that effect compounds across a family vacation or a multi-day business trip.
There is also a less tangible cost: The disruption to business relationships. Companies in sectors like automotive, technology and finance that have historically relied on regular cross-border trips to maintain partnerships, attend conferences or close deals are now navigating a harder environment. That friction has financial consequences that are harder to quantify but no less real.
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Where Canadians are likely redirecting their travel dollars
The shift away from U.S. travel does not mean Canadians are staying home. Industry signals suggest increased interest in domestic travel, as well as European and Mexican destinations that offer comparable experiences without the political undertone.
The financial impact is also a factor. While a trip to the U.S. previously made financial sense — driven by proximity, a strong dollar or familiar logistics — now requires a more deliberate comparison. Travel insurance, cancellation terms and currency risk all carry more weight in a volatile bilateral environment.
Where Canadians travellers can do right now
- Review your travel insurance: If you have a trip to the U.S. booked, confirm what your policy covers if conditions change or you choose to cancel. Standard cancellation coverage may not apply to policy decisions.
- Rethink your currency strategy: If you are travelling to the U.S., converting currency in advance when the rate is relatively favourable can reduce your exposure. Watch the Bank of Canada's exchange rate tracking for context.
- Compare destination costs: For leisure travel, running a side-by-side cost comparison between a U.S. destination and a domestic or alternative international option may reveal better value than you expect.
- Track the tariff calendar: Business travellers with U.S. commitments should monitor the ongoing Canada–U.S. trade negotiations through Global Affairs Canada for timeline signals that could affect travel demand.
- File business travel costs carefully: Canadian businesses with cross-border travel expenses should document costs clearly, as tariff-related disruptions may factor into future tax planning or claims.
The University of Toronto analysis is a data snapshot, not a forecast. Trade policy can shift, and travel patterns can normalize. But the pace of that normalization depends on decisions being made in Ottawa and Washington, not in airport departure lounges. For now, Canadians appear to be voting with their itineraries — and the economic signal is hard to ignore.
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University of Toronto School of Cities (1),(2)
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Romana King, Senior Editor at Money.ca, also writes for various North American publications and the RKHomeowner blog. Her book, House Poor No More, is an Amazon bestseller and five-time award winner, including the 2022 New York CPA Society's Excellence in Financial Journalism (EFJ) Book Award.
