National Bank CEO says tariffs will make business 'difficult,' but remains 'encouraged' — the silver lining he sees

Here’s what Ferreira is pointing to, and what that mobilization could actually mean for Canadians’ jobs, borrowing and finances.

What the CEO is seeing

Ferreira didn’t downplay the risk. “The unresolved and escalating trade conflict with the U.S. continues to create economic uncertainty and challenges for businesses across the country,” he said, adding that it’s “difficult to forecast” how the conflict plays out. But he also credited a federal support package announced the day before the call as “welcome” relief for affected businesses and workers, part of a $7.5 billion tariff-relief package Ottawa unveiled alongside its retaliatory tariffs.

More broadly, Ferreira said discussions with clients and partners point to one conclusion: “Canada is taking the right steps to strengthen the foundations of its economy, and it has fiscal room to continue doing so.” He singled out government and business investment flowing into reindustrialization, infrastructure, defence and energy as evidence the country is retooling rather than just absorbing the hit.

The number behind the optimism

Some of that room to manoeuvre comes from Canada’s bank regulator. In June, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) lowered the Domestic Stability Buffer — the extra capital cushion the country’s six largest banks must hold against system-wide risk — to 3% of risk-weighted assets from 3.5%. OSFI said the move frees up roughly $74 billion in capital across the big six banks, translating into as much as $673 billion in additional lending capacity.

The regulator was explicit about where it expects that capital to go: opportunities in “defence and security, critical infrastructure, resources and artificial intelligence” as the economy adapts to shifting trade dynamics. Ferreira called the change a source of “additional flexibility to support Canadian businesses” as they navigate the tariff environment.

What this could mean for Canadians’ money

Ferreira and OSFI both flagged the infrastructure, energy, defence and resources sectors as the ones most likely to see new hiring and contract activity if banks and governments follow through on deploying capital there. For business owners, it may mean more room from lenders for expansion or project financing than there was a year ago.

For everyday borrowers, the picture is more mixed. National Bank’s own results show mortgage lending growing briskly — up 14% year over year — but executives say that growth is coming from market share gains and competition, not from banks passing along the new capital flexibility as materially cheaper rates. In other words: more lending capacity doesn’t automatically mean a better deal on your next mortgage or loan, but it does suggest banks have less reason to pull back on credit if the economy weakens further.

How to read the optimism

It’s worth taking Ferreira’s comments for what they are: a bank CEO’s read on a fast-moving situation, not a guarantee. He said himself the conflict is “unresolved and escalating” and that the outcome is hard to forecast. National Bank’s own chief risk officer has flagged that unemployment, tariff pressure and geopolitical risk will keep weighing on some borrowers even as overall credit performance holds up.

While it may be hard to try to stay afloat of a mercurial news cycle and tariff landscape, here is some overarching advice to help stay grounded, both professionally and financially:

• Watch where the money actually moves, not just the rhetoric. Job postings and project announcements in infrastructure, energy, defence and resources are a more useful signal than a CEO’s tone on a conference call
• If you run a business, ask your lender directly whether the new capital flexibility changes what’s available to you — it won’t show up automatically
• Keep budgeting as though tariff uncertainty continues. Optimism about the broader mobilization isn’t the same as certainty your own household costs won’t rise

The bottom line

Ferreira’s optimism isn’t about tariffs disappearing — it’s about Canada having room to respond to them. Regulators freed up tens of billions in bank capital, and Ottawa backed its retaliatory tariffs with a relief package for the businesses caught in the crosshairs. For Canadians, the practical takeaway isn’t to relax. It’s to watch whether that mobilization turns into real jobs, real project financing and real credit availability in the months ahead — and to keep your own finances resilient either way.