Trump's 51st state remarks, escalating tariff war, still costing U.S. tourism billions in Canadian dollars

U.S. tourism boards are rolling out the welcome mat for Canadians this fall. Some downtown Las Vegas hotels are pricing rooms as if the Canadian dollar equals the U.S., New York state launched an “NY Loves Canada” discount push and officials from Nevada to Florida have been meeting with Canadian travel advisors directly, according to the Associated Press. The timing is awkward — those deals are landing just as Washington has pushed tariffs on Canadian goods as high as 50%, while also outright banning the import of choice commodities by the end of the money.

For snowbirds who typically head to Florida, Arizona and California each winter, the discounts raise a practical question. Canadians cut spending on U.S. trips by $3.3 billion in 2025, to $18.8 billion, and made 7.1 million fewer visits than the year before, according to Statistics Canada. Before booking on the strength of a deal, it’s worth checking whether the math still favours the U.S.

The ups and downs of recent travel

There are early signs of a partial recovery. Border crossings picked up slightly in May, June and July of 2026, helped along by the World Cup, which Canada’s men’s team competed in. But the rebound has been fragile, and a new round of tariffs threatens to undercut it just as the winter travel season begins.

Do the discounts actually offset the cost?

A hotel room priced at par, or a splashy “we love Canada” promotion, can look like real savings. But a weaker Canadian dollar coupled alongside rising U.S. airfares and hotel rates have already pushed up the cost of an American trip compared with a few years ago. Additionally, tariffs on Canadian goods make cross-border shopping — a side perk of a U.S. trip — less rewarding too. Florida saw a 7% drop in Canadian visitors in 2025; Visit California estimated a 20% decline. Both regions are counting on this winter’s snowbird season to show whether the outreach is working.

What snowbirds should weigh before booking

Before locking in a winter stay, compare more than the sticker price:

• Exchange rate: Check whether an “at-par” promotion actually beats the current conversion rate, and whether it applies to the room or dates you want.
• Total trip cost: Weigh flights, gas and dining against what many Canadians have already found closer to home or in another international country — spending on domestic and overseas trips soared as the U.S. share fell.
• Insurance: Confirm travel medical coverage still applies for the length of stay, and ask about coverage for trip disruptions.
• Tariff exposure: Budget for higher prices on American-made goods if shopping is part of the plan.

The bottom line for snowbirds

There’s no single right call here, and it depends on where you’re headed and how long you’re staying. What’s clear is that this winter is shaping up as a real test of whether the informal boycott holds through another snowbird season.

Before booking on the strength of a discount, run the fully loaded cost and decide with that number in front of you, not the ad.