Jul 30, 2026
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Jamie Dimon isn’t buying stocks right now. He wouldn’t buy long-dated government bonds at today’s prices either — and he thinks investors, generally, are underestimating just how much could go wrong.
The CEO of JPMorgan Chase, one of the most closely watched voices in global finance, told CNBC in an extensive interview that growing geopolitical tension — including the U.S.-Iran conflict and the ongoing war in Ukraine — isn’t fully reflected in today’s stock prices. “I do think those risks are probably bigger than other people think,” Dimon said.
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It’s a warning worth heeding, because the same complacency applies to Canadian investors.
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The rally that’s papering over the risk
The Dow, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq have each climbed between roughly 8% and 11% so far this year, and Dimon has acknowledged that any concerns about the wars as they currently stand may already be priced in. His fear, he says, is a trigger that hasn’t happened yet.
Canadian investors are riding a strikingly similar wave. The S&P/TSX Composite Index traded at an all-time high above 35,000 points on June 22, and has since surpassed that benchmark, trading at 35,568 as of July 27 — just over 12% year-to-date.
Much like the U.S. benchmarks, that strength has been driven in part by heavy AI-related spending and, in the TSX’s case, a substantial weighting toward gold and other materials producers.
Dimon isn’t dismissing the reasons stocks have climbed. He compared today’s AI spending to the buildout of internet companies decades ago, telling CNBC that the investment will likely “pay off, just like the internet did,” even if it doesn’t happen “on the timetable you expect.”
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Canada’s own fiscal picture
Dimon has been warning about a coming “bond crisis” for more than a year, driven largely by rising government deficits that he believes could erode investors’ confidence in government debt.
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As such, Canadian bond investors are watching this dynamic unfold on the global stage. The Bank of Canada’s 2026 Financial Stability Report notes that government debt loads are expected to grow, citing an aging population and higher defence spending among the drivers. The same report flagged that more than 18% of U.S. investment-grade bond issuance now sits in the technology sector — a record share driven by AI data-centre financing. Such a concentration could ripple through the broader markets if AI-related earnings disappoint.
On the fiscal side, Canada’s federal deficit came in lower than expected this spring, landing near 2% of GDP, according to the government’s spring economic update. Even so, the Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer projects the federal debt-to-GDP ratio will keep climbing, from 41.3% in the 2025-26 fiscal year to 42.5% by 2030-31.
The risks closer to home
Dimon's warnings are about geopolitics and government bonds, but Canadian investors are carrying two homegrown risks that matter just as much day to day.
The first is how the TSX itself is built. Financials are the most heavily weighted sector on the TSX by far, and the index's structure reflects Canada's resource base. Per BlackRock's iShares Core S&P/TSX Capped Composite Index ETF factsheet, financials made up just over 31% of the index, with materials near 19% and energy around 18% — together amounting to close to 70% of the benchmark. That's a fundamentally different bet than owning the S&P 500. A US-heavy portfolio rises and falls largely with tech earnings; a TSX-heavy one rises and falls with oil prices, gold and Canadian bank results. It's not unusual for the index to slip even during a commodities rally simply because bank stocks are dragging on it — that concentration cuts both ways, and it's worth knowing how much of a "diversified" Canadian portfolio is really a leveraged bet on three sectors.
The second is closer to the kitchen table. According to the Bank of Canada's 2026 Financial Stability Report, the last wave of five-year, fixed-payment mortgages taken out during the pandemic will renew over the next 12 months, representing about 12% of all outstanding mortgages in Canada, with strong income growth expected to allow most borrowers to manage the payment increase. The bigger concern is a narrower group: at current home prices, the Bank estimates only about 4% of borrowers nationally — but roughly 9% in the Toronto area — would not be able to refinance at renewal, because falling home values have left them without enough equity to meet lenders' requirements. If home prices fell another 10%, that share would rise to about 7% nationally and 12% in Toronto. Those borrowers aren't just facing a bigger payment — they may not have the option to shop for a better rate elsewhere at all.
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Neither of these is the kind of risk a Dimon-style geopolitical warning captures. But for most Canadians, a mortgage renewal notice will land before a bond crisis does — and it's arguably the bigger near-term threat to a household's finances.
Not everyone is bracing for the worst
Not every Canadian investor shares Dimon’s level of caution. Jennifer Shum, senior managing director of structured and private credit at the Healthcare of Ontario Pension Plan (HOOPP), says geopolitical risk is something large Canadian pension funds are watching closely, but it hasn’t changed their long-term approach.
“You can indicate those risks, but it’s not going to change the way we invest — it’s just an added risk,” Shum said.
That’s a useful distinction for everyday investors, too. Being aware of a risk isn’t the same as reacting to every headline about it.
What Canadians can do about it
Dimon’s warning isn’t a call to sell everything, and it isn't really about timing the market. Trying to guess when a correction will hit usually costs investors more than it saves them. However, it is a good reminder to check that a portfolio is built to handle more than one outcome.
- Revisit how much of a portfolio sits in stocks versus bonds versus cash. Confirm this mix still matches a personal risk tolerance and timeline, not just an old comfort level built up during a rising market.
- Use registered accounts to their full potential. The TFSA contribution limit is $7,000 this year, with a lifetime limit of $109,000 for anyone who’s been eligible since 2009, while the RRSP dollar limit has risen to $33,810.
- Rebalance rather than chase. If stocks have run up more than bonds this year, trimming the winner to top up the laggard keeps a portfolio in line with its original plan.
- Keep contributing on a regular schedule rather than trying to time entry points. Dollar-cost averaging softens the blow of a downturn, whenever it comes.
- Talk to a financial advisor before making any big moves, especially if a large share of savings is concentrated in a single sector, like technology.
None of this changes what Dimon is watching in Washington or what the next geopolitical headline might do to markets. But a portfolio built to withstand a bad surprise doesn’t need to guess when, or if, one is coming.
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Chris Morris is a veteran journalist with more than 35 years of experience at many of the internet's biggest news outlets. In addition to his activities as a writer, reporter and editor, Chris is also a frequent panel moderator and speaker at major conferences, including CES and South by Southwest.
