Canadian aluminum faces a 50% U.S. tariff — but the midterm results could change that. Here’s what Canadians should (and shouldn’t) expect next

For the Canadian aluminum industry, the stakes include export revenues, business costs and jobs. While producers have found alternative markets, namely Europe, keeping metal moving has come at a financial cost.

Industry leaders hope for progress

Simard hopes the election will encourage U.S. lawmakers to challenge President Donald Trump’s trade policies and create momentum for an agreement with Canada.

Canadian Federation of Independent Business president Dan Kelly also expressed hope that the election outcome could move Washington toward a lasting deal, according to the Canadian Press report.

Their optimism doesn’t mean a policy change is coming soon. The White House doubled steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% on June 4, 2025. Its proclamation states that the duties would remain until expressly reduced, modified or terminated.

Washington has defended the tariffs as necessary to protect domestic production and national security. As long as that position remains, it’s a serious obstacle to tariff relief.

European buyers have helped protect production

Canada produces roughly 3.3 million tonnes of aluminum annually and exports about 90% of its output, Simard told The Canadian Press. In the past, most of those exports went to the United States.

However, he said that since March 2025, Canadian producers have shipped roughly 800,000 tonnes to Europe. Under normal market conditions, the total would be around 100,000 tonnes over a comparable period. According to Simard, redirecting shipments has allowed primary producers to maintain production without cuts to output or jobs.

But while the shift has helped the industry withstand the tariffs, the financial impact weighs heavily.

In its April 2026 assessment, the Bank of Canada found that producers had redirected sales to Europe at lower profit margins. Aluminum exports initially dropped sharply after tariffs took effect, then recovered more than half their initial losses.

The impact extends beyond smelters

The Bank of Canada also found that employment in aluminum production and processing had remained resilient. However, its industry consultations identified layoffs at some manufacturers further along the supply chain that faced higher aluminum costs.

Even with smelters running, businesses that supply them or use their aluminum can still face higher costs, putting jobs and household incomes under pressure.

A trade deal could ease some of those costs, but it’s too soon to say whether Canadians would see lower prices or how quickly any savings would reach shoppers.