Nov 5, 2026
Roger Spicer figured he saved around $60 filling up his work truck at a truck stop in Enfield, Nova Scotia on Wednesday. Diesel in much of the eastern province dropped 13 cents overnight to 256.5 cents a litre, and drivers in other provinces saw similar cuts at the pump.
It’s tempting to connect the dots. Diesel moves the food Canadians eat from farms and ports to store shelves, so cheaper fuel should translate to cheaper groceries. But food researchers say the savings won’t show up at the checkout right away — and may not show up at all if fuel prices climb again.
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The gap between the pump and the grocery aisle comes down to contracts, seasons and a number of pressures that have nothing to do with diesel. Here’s what to watch as you plan your food budget this winter.
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Why did diesel prices drop so suddenly?
The Nova Scotia Energy Board, which regulates fuel prices in the province, made an unscheduled cut on Wednesday, citing a significant shift in market prices.
In the Greater Toronto Area, diesel fell 11 cents to 235.9 cents a litre, a level not seen since early September, according to Dan McTeague of Canadians for Affordable Energy, an advocacy group focused on fuel costs.
So what’s changed? Carol Montreuil, vice-president with the Canadian Fuels Association, an industry group representing Canada’s fuel refiners and distributors, told CTV News that crude oil prices have fallen on expectations for an end to the wars involving Iran and Ukraine, though neither conflict has been resolved.
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Why won’t grocery prices fall as fast as diesel?
Will cheaper diesel mean a lower grocery bill this month? Probably not. Sylvain Charlebois, a food researcher and professor at Dalhousie University, told CTV News that the food being hauled to stores today is moving based on contracts signed months ago. Fuel prices, he said, “need to remain low for a while” before shoppers see the benefit.
Michael Mulvey, a marketing professor at the University of Ottawa, made a similar point to The Canadian Press back in October: many transportation contracts are set months in advance, and prices that rise with costs often take longer to come back down.
Timing is working against shoppers, too. Mike von Massow, a food economist at the University of Guelph, told CP that diesel matters less in summer, when more food comes from Canadian farms. After harvest, more food is imported from outside the country, and produce that travels far or needs refrigeration is most exposed. “As diesel prices go up, food prices go up relatively across the board,” he said.
Desjardins deputy chief economist Randall Bartlett also flagged a weaker loonie and the impact of retaliatory tariffs on some farm parts and machinery as pressures on food prices.
How much has diesel added to grocery costs so far?
The spike was steep. Diesel prices were up 75% year over year in August, according to the food price dashboard from Statistics Canada.
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Yet grocery inflation has cooled. Prices for food purchased from stores rose 1.7% in the 12 months to September, the smallest annual increase since May 2024. Headline inflation hit 3.1%, driven largely by a 27.8% jump in gasoline prices.
Slower inflation isn’t the same thing as lower prices, though. StatCan says grocery prices are up 33% since September 2020 — so a basket that cost $100 then costs about $133 today.
What signals should Canadians watch this winter?
Watch for these four signs that will show whether grocery relief is on its way:
- Pump prices that hold or keep falling for several weeks, not just a few days
- Monthly inflation reports from StatCan, especially food purchased from stores and fresh vegetables
- The loonie against the U.S. dollar, since a weaker dollar makes imported winter produce pricier
- News on Iran and Ukraine, which impacts crude prices
McTeague predicted another 5 to 6 cents a litre in cuts by the end of this week, but cautioned Canadians that the longer-term direction of fuel prices is still uncertain.
What to do now
Rather than waiting on diesel, focus on what you can control:
- Buy Canadian-grown produce while it’s in season and freeze what you can
- Swap in frozen or canned vegetables when imported fresh produce gets pricey
- Compare unit prices and check flyers before you go to the grocery store
- Stock up on shelf-stable staples when they go on sale
- If you heat with oil or drive a diesel vehicle, consider topping up now, while prices are lower — StatCan says fuel oil prices were up 57.8% year over year in September
If pump prices stay lower through the winter, those savings can eventually work their way into new shipping contracts and, later, onto shelf prices. Until then, treat this week’s drop as a welcome break at the pump and an early signal — not a reason to loosen your grocery budget.
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Leslie Kennedy served as an editor at Thomson Reuters and for Star Media Group, followed by a number of years as a writer and editor and content manager in marketing communications, before returning to her editorial roots. She is a graduate of Humber College’s post-graduate journalism program and has been a professional writer and editor ever since.
