Sep 22, 2026
Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe is firing back at U.S. President Donald Trump over a proposed trade deal that could threaten Canada’s $4.2-billion potash export industry.
In a post on Truth Social, Trump announced that the United States is negotiating a “massive deal” to import potash from Belarus, claiming the Eastern European nation could offer the critical agricultural input at a substantially lower price than Canadian producers.
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Moe quickly condemned the proposal, warning that buying Belarusian fertilizer means supporting international aggression.
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“More than 40 countries, Canada and its allies, have sanctions against Belarus for supporting war criminal Putin’s invasion of Ukraine,” Moe wrote in a response on X. “Buying blood potash from Belarus is supporting Russian aggression. It’s wrong and it doesn’t make sense.”
The dispute strikes at the heart of one of Canada’s most lucrative trade relationships, raising questions about whether a supply shift to Eastern Europe is realistically feasible or simply trade war posturing.
What is potash and why is it vital
Potash is a naturally occurring potassium-rich salt mined deep underground, and it serves as one of the three primary nutrients in commercial fertilizers alongside nitrogen and phosphorus.
It plays a crucial role in agriculture by improving plant water retention, increasing crop yields, boosting disease resistance and strengthening plant stems. For major agricultural producers in North America, steady access to potash is essential for growing staples such as corn, soybeans and wheat.
Canada is the world’s largest exporter of potash, with Saskatchewan producing the nation’s entire supply from 10 active mines. According to Natural Resources Canada, the province shipped $4.2 billion worth of potash to American buyers in 2025, with the U.S. relying on Canada for roughly 85% of its total imports.
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Can Belarus actually supply the American market
While Trump touts Belarus as a cheaper alternative for U.S. farmers, energy and trade analysts express deep skepticism about the country’s ability to replace Canadian production.
In 2024, Canada accounted for nearly 33% of global potash production. Belarus ranked third globally, producing 12.1 million tonnes, roughly half of Canada’s output.
Capacity constraints present an immediate hurdle. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko acknowledged in state media reports that his country currently lacks surplus supply to sell to Western markets, noting that their annual production is already fully bound by existing contracts.
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Beyond supply limits, shipping logistics create massive financial and practical challenges.
Canadian potash moves seamlessly across the border into the American Midwest via an integrated rail network. By contrast, potash from landlocked Belarus must travel through Russia by rail, navigate port facilities subject to Western sanctions, cross the Atlantic Ocean by ship and then be offloaded and transported across the U.S. mainland.
“All of that potash has to be shipped first through Russia, then across the ocean, then across the U.S. to mid-western farmers,” Moe pointed out on X, questioning whether those transport costs could ever undercut Canadian pricing.
Impact on Saskatchewan’s economy
Despite the logistical barriers, market observers note that even the threat of Belarusian entry could weigh on Canadian producers.
According to University of Regina economics professor Jason Childs, while a full replacement of Canadian potash is unlikely, any significant influx of sanctioned supply into North America could drag down global spot prices, he told CBC. Lower market prices would directly hit revenue for Saskatchewan’s mining sector, even if overall trade volumes remain relatively stable.
For now, industry groups and provincial leadership maintain that Saskatchewan’s proximity, supply reliability and political stability make Canadian potash irreplaceable for American agriculture over the long term.
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Leslie Kennedy served as an editor at Thomson Reuters and for Star Media Group, followed by a number of years as a writer and editor and content manager in marketing communications, before returning to her editorial roots. She is a graduate of Humber College’s post-graduate journalism program and has been a professional writer and editor ever since.
