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Even a 6% rent hike could leave thousands of Montreal renters on the financial edge: Study

After several years of rising housing costs, many renters are already living on thin margins. Another rent increase could push some over the edge.

A new study commissioned by Centraide of Greater Montreal estimates that a 6% rent increase would push more than 30,000 people in the region into financial insecurity. Of those, more than 16,000 would fall into what researchers describe as “extreme precarity,” where even an unexpected expense could trigger serious financial hardship.

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“Three years after Together for Housing was introduced, the situation is more urgent than ever,” said Tasha Lackman, president and CEO of Centraide of Greater Montreal, in a statement. “The impacts of housing costs are increasingly visible, with families being displaced, individuals pushed to the brink financially and workers unable to find a decent place to live.”

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Why another 6% matters

On paper, a 6% rent increase may not seem dramatic. But the study argues that for households already spending much of their income on essentials, another increase of that size can have an outsized impact.

The scenario was chosen because it reflects the kind of increase renters have experienced in recent years. According to the report, Quebec’s Tribunal Administratif du Logement recommended average rent increases of about 4% in 2024, 5.9% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026 — or a total increase of roughly 13.6% over three years.

Rather than examining a single rent hike in isolation, the report looks at what happens when costs continue to rise for households that already have very little financial flexibility.

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Rent pressure doesn’t stop at housing

The study suggests the consequences of rising rents extend well beyond paying more each month.

Households classified as being in ”extreme precarity” have little or no money left after covering essential expenses such as rent, food and electricity. That often forces difficult choices, including skipping meals, delaying bill payments, taking on debt, turning down the heat or putting off medical care.

Researchers also warn that sustained financial pressure increases the risk of housing loss and homelessness for some households.

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According to the projections, the largest increases in extreme financial hardship would occur across 10 Montreal boroughs, including Ville-Marie, Le Plateau-Mont-Royal, Mercier–Hochelaga-Maisonneuve and Villeray–Saint-Michel–Parc-Extension.

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Looking beyond income tells a different story

One of the report’s main conclusions is that income alone doesn’t always capture whether a household is financially secure.

Instead, researchers used what they call a “precarity index,” which considers both income and essential expenses such as housing, food and utilities. The goal is to better identify households that appear financially stable based on income alone but have little room left in their monthly budgets once basic bills are paid.

To build the projections, researchers created a synthetic model of Greater Montreal covering 66 municipalities and simulated the effects of a 6% increase in rents. The model uses artificial intelligence to estimate how households with different incomes and expenses could be affected, without relying on identifiable personal information.

Although the findings focus specifically on Greater Montreal, they reflect a challenge facing renters throughout Canada. After several years of rising housing costs, even relatively modest rent increases can have a huge impact on households that are already stretching every dollar to cover basic needs.

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Steven Brennan Contributor

Steven Brennan is a freelance finance writer based in Vancouver, BC. He holds a BA and an MA from Maynooth University, Ireland. His work regularly appears at Canadian Mortgage Trends, Lowest Rates, Loans Canada and other Canadian and US brands, while also working as a ghostwriter for financial influencers.

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