Oct 1, 2026
Ontario’s promise to build 1.5 million homes by 2031 was meant to be the fix for the province’s affordability crisis. But it’s been four years since the target was set, and one of the province’s most influential business groups says it isn’t going to happen.
In a report released Oct. 1, the Toronto Region Board of Trade (TRBOT), a business advocacy group for employers across the Toronto region, said the 2031 deadline is unachievable even if construction picks up. Provincial budget forecasts show Ontario falling more than 550,000 homes short of the pace needed by 2029. “It was called the housing crisis for a reason,” TRBOT president and CEO Giles Gherson told The Canadian Press. He also said that the next generation is increasingly seeing the idea of homeownership as a “pipe dream.”
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Whether you are buying or renting, the important question is what this shortage will mean for your own plans, and what you can expect to happen to today’s softer housing market.
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How far behind is Ontario, really?
Ontario is further behind than the headline numbers suggest. The province set a target of 150,000 new homes for 2025 but recorded 86,760, or about 58%, Global News reported. That total included basement units, laneway suites, long-term care beds, retirement homes and student housing.
Strip those out and the picture is starker. According to the 2026 Ontario Budget, the province recorded just 65,400 traditional housing starts in 2025, down from 74,600 in 2024. Toronto reached 49% of its target and neighbouring Mississauga just 24%. Meanwhile, the annual goal climbs to 175,000 homes in 2026 and beyond.
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What’s actually slowing construction down?
TRBOT’s simple answer: rules. Gherson described zoning and building code requirements across Ontario as fragmented and out of date, noting that builders face dozens of different requirements within Toronto alone. Being compliant makes designs harder to standardize and adds cost and delay.
The report recommends:
- A provincial zoning code giving all municipalities the same framework and terminology
- A baseline of housing types, starting with townhouses and multiplexes, that can proceed without special approval
- Provincewide limits on rules that most often stall projects, such as parking, setbacks, height and density
- A cost review of every building code requirement
- Single-stair buildings up to six storeys, with smaller elevators, as long as safety and accessibility requirements are met
More permissive zoning in Edmonton, Gherson pointed out, have made multiplexes common across a wider range of neighbourhoods.
There’s a catch, though. Even if Ontario adopts every reform tomorrow, the board says municipalities would need years to update plans, amend bylaws, line up infrastructure and process applications. And not everyone agrees regulation is the main barrier to hitting targets. Halton Hills Mayor Ann Lawlor told Global News that cities don’t build homes — builders do, and they respond to market conditions.
What does a missed target mean for your wallet?
In the short term, buyers have some breathing room. The average Greater Toronto Area (GTA) selling price was $993,410 in August of this year, down 2.7% from this time last year, while the benchmark price for a typical home fell 4.5%, according to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB).
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The long-term view is less forgiving. TRBOT’s analysis found GTA composite home prices increased roughly 187% between 2006 and 2025, compared with about 51% cumulative inflation. Without steady construction, the board warns, recent affordability gains will likely be temporary. TRREB has also flagged that tighter inventory could bring renewed price growth in the months ahead.
There is one time-limited opportunity. Ontario and Ottawa temporarily expanded HST relief on new homes to all eligible buyers, not just first-timers. Homes valued up to $1.5 million qualify for up to $130,000 in relief, with a reduced rebate between $1.5 million and $1.85 million. The window covers agreements signed from April 1, 2026 to March 31, 2027, and the home has to be a primary residence or residential rental property.
Still, a rebate doesn’t turn a bad purchase into a good one. Preconstruction buyers can still face delays, price changes or cancelled projects, so a builder’s track record matters as much as the tax break.
What to do now
If you’re counting on a construction boom to rescue affordability, plan for a longer wait. In the meantime, here are a few practical steps:
- Base your budget on today’s prices and rates, not on a future supply wave
- Get pre-approval on your mortgage so you know your real purchasing power
- First-time buyers can use a First Home Savings Account (FHSA): Contribute up to $8,000 a year, to a $40,000 lifetime limit, with tax-deductible contributions and tax-free qualifying withdrawals
- If you’re considering a new build, confirm HST rebate eligibility with your lawyer and builder before signing — and before the March 31, 2027 cutoff
- Renters weighing a purchase should compare the full cost of renting versus owning over a 5-year horizon, including closing costs
The board’s message is about timing: new homes are coming, but likely not fast enough to change the math for most households before 2031. That puts the focus back on what you control, such as your timeline, your savings and how much risk you can carry.
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Leslie Kennedy served as an editor at Thomson Reuters and for Star Media Group, followed by a number of years as a writer and editor and content manager in marketing communications, before returning to her editorial roots. She is a graduate of Humber College’s post-graduate journalism program and has been a professional writer and editor ever since.
