Global capital is eyeing Canadian reliable energy once again — how would this benefit both investors and citizens?

“This is the third time that I’ve seen a big green light for Canada,” ARC Financial CEO Brian Boulanger said at the Global Energy Show Canada in Calgary. Energy equities have climbed sharply since Prime Minister Mark Carney’s election, and worries about potential U.S. tariffs on Canadian energy have eased. But Boulanger’s underlying point stands: the last two times capital rushed toward Canada, it left just as fast — not because the country ran out of oil, but because of policy.

Why is money suddenly flowing back into Canadian energy?

Geopolitical instability is doing a lot of the work. The ongoing conflict involving Iran, Israel and the U.S., disruptions to Middle East shipping routes, questions about Russian energy supply and rising electricity demand from artificial intelligence and data centres have pushed governments and investors to prioritize energy security. Canada offers political stability, established rule of law and some of the world’s largest long-life oil and natural gas reserves. Two developments are feeding the optimism directly: the completed Trans Mountain Expansion, which opened new access to Pacific markets, and the startup of LNG Canada’s export terminal in British Columbia.

The last boom shows how fast this can reverse

Canada has been here before. Roughly $174 billion in foreign investment flowed into the sector between 2005 and 2014, helping push industry revenue toward $210 billion a year and government royalties and taxes above $40 billion. However, capital fled almost as quickly starting in 2018, as it was spooked by regulatory uncertainty and cancelled pipeline projects, according to energy economist Peter Tertzakian’s analysis in The Hub.

Today’s targets show how much ground would need to be made up. Alberta has set a goal of nearly doubling oil output to eight million barrels a day by 2035. The province’s production reached 4.8 million barrels a day by December 2025, up from 3.9 million in December 2018 — meaning the province would need to nearly triple its recent pace of annual growth to hit that target, a CBC News analysis of the math found.

Investors still flag certain federal policies as sources of uncertainty, including the Impact Assessment Act, a proposed emissions cap on the oil and gas sector, alongside rising industrial carbon costs, drawn-out project approval timelines and regulatory duplication. Weatherford International CEO Girish Saligram says there’s now a clearer understanding of the sector’s importance globally — but sentiment isn’t the same as project approvals.

What it means for your money

If you hold Canadian energy stocks, sector funds or a broad index fund with meaningful energy weighting inside your RRSP or TFSA, renewed institutional interest is a tailwind — but a policy-dependent one, not a sure thing. Treat ‘energy superpower’ headlines as a signal to watch, not a reason to concentrate new savings into one sector.

The stakes reach beyond portfolios. As of 2023, oil and natural gas supported about 446,600 direct and indirect jobs and made up roughly $177 billion, about a quarter of Canada’s total exports, according to Natural Resources Canada’s Energy Fact Book. For households in Alberta, Saskatchewan or Newfoundland and Labrador, more investment can mean more hiring and stronger local economies. Less investment shows up as slower job growth and tighter provincial budgets, with knock-on effects for public services and housing markets in those regions.

What Canadians should do now

• Don’t assume the boom is permanent. Watch for actual project approvals and pipeline commitments, not production targets or investor sentiment, before treating the sector as a reliable growth story
• If your workplace pension, RRSP or TFSA is overweighed in energy, check whether that concentration still matches your risk tolerance, rather than assuming past strength will continue
• If your household income depends on the energy sector, build the same financial cushion you’d want in any cyclical industry — this sector has swung hard before
• Follow policy news, not just commodity prices. Decisions on the Impact Assessment Act, the emissions cap and new pipeline approvals will do more to determine whether this boom lasts than any single production target

This isn’t just a story about geology. It’s a test of whether Ottawa can turn a favourable moment into durable policy, instead of letting capital arrive and leave again. Until that’s proven, Canadians benefiting from this boom, whether through a paycheque or a portfolio, are better off treating it as an opportunity to watch closely rather than a trend to bank on.