Oct 5, 2026
Canadians are about to get a two-week lesson in what political uncertainty can do to their money.
On Oct. 5, Quebecers vote in a provincial election where the Parti Québécois (PQ), the province’s main sovereigntist party, is leading in the polls and promising a referendum. It’s the third time the province will cast such a vote.Two weeks later, on Oct. 19, Albertans vote in a referendum that asks whether the province should stay in Canada or hold a second, binding vote to leave.
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Neither province’s vote would split the country on its own. But a new study on Alberta separation offers a sobering price tag — and its lead author says Quebec’s would likely look similar.
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What did the University of Calgary study find?
The University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy, commissioned by the Alberta government, modelled two hypothetical paths for the study: A “smooth” separation with a quick, favourable deal with Canada and a “difficult” one with hostile, drawn-out negotiations.
Either way, setting up a whole new country would cost $50 billion to $170 billion in the first five years, including new IT systems and roughly 70,000 additional public servants.
Within five years, the report finds:
- Smooth: gross domestic product (GDP) is predicted to be about 2.2% lower, take-home pay down more than $1,200 a year and about $800 more in tax per taxpayer
- Difficult: GDP 10.1% lower, employment dips 10%, a typical worker earning almost $5,500 less and taxes up to $5,500 higher per person
The long-term view splits sharply. After 20 years, the smooth path shows GDP 3.4% higher and take-home pay up more than $1,800 a year. The difficult path, however, shows GDP 16.2% lower and wages almost $12,000 below where they’d otherwise be.
“There’s also a very big risk that things could not go well and Alberta could pay a very big price,” Tim Sargent, the report’s lead economist, told Global News.
Not everyone agrees with those numbers. Independence supporter Keith Wilson argues the report leans on worst-case assumptions.
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Why does an Alberta study matter for Quebec?
Sargent, director of economic growth and prosperity at the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy and a longtime federal civil servant, told CBC the cost to Quebec’s economy and finances would likely be similar.
“It’s hard to see the economic upside from Quebec independence,” he said, noting that unlike Alberta, Quebec doesn’t have an oil and gas sector it could leverage for potential gain.
The report cites studies done before the 1995 referendum that projected Quebec’s real GDP would shrink by 1.2% to 7.7%. Independent analysis has been limited since, Sargent said.
PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has budgeted at least $130 million for a referendum in 2029 or 2030 and argues independence would bring savings in the long run.
How could referendum uncertainty hit your savings?
A yes vote is not the only way you’ll feel the effects of the referendums. Markets react to the odds.
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During the 1995 Quebec campaign, currency traders knocked 2.4% off the loonie’s value in just three days on fears the yes side was building momentum. A study in the Canadian Journal of Economics found uncertainty around the vote hit stock returns of Quebec-based companies, especially those most exposed to political risk.
After the no side won, the Canadian dollar moved sharply higher and Canadian interest rates fell. Investors who sold in a panic would have missed that rebound.
Canadians who are most exposed today include:
- Workers and homeowners in Alberta and Quebec, whose jobs and home values are dependant on the local economy
- Investors heavily concentrated in Canadian or regional stocks
- People nearing retirement and retirees who may need to sell investments soon
- Borrowers renewing a mortgage while rates and the loonie are volatile
What to do now
You can prepare without overreacting. Here are a few steps that can help you:
- Check your concentration. If most of your registered retirement savings plan (RRSP) or tax-free savings account (TFSA) sits in Canadian stocks — or in companies tied to one province — consider spreading more across global markets
- Don’t trade based on polls. Short-term swings can reverse quickly, as 1995 showed
- Shore up your cash buffer. If your income depends on the Alberta or Quebec economy, an emergency fund covering three to six months of expenses gives you room to wait out turbulence
- Watch your renewal date. If you have to renew your mortgage in the next year, talk to your lender early about your options
- Get advice before big moves. A licensed financial advisor can weigh changes against your timeline
The smarter question isn’t how to bet on the outcome of the votes — it’s whether your finances could withstand a few years of political uncertainty.
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Leslie Kennedy served as an editor at Thomson Reuters and for Star Media Group, followed by a number of years as a writer and editor and content manager in marketing communications, before returning to her editorial roots. She is a graduate of Humber College’s post-graduate journalism program and has been a professional writer and editor ever since.
