Nov 2, 2026
Canadians won’t be casting a single ballot on Tuesday, Nov. 3. But one of the tightest races in the U.S. midterm elections could still find its way into Canadian households anyway, hitting their paycheques, shopping carts and investment portfolios.
In Michigan, the Senate contest between Republican Mike Rogers and Democrat Abdul El-Sayed has become a de facto vote on the U.S. trade war with Canada. Both candidates now support ending the fight with Canada, and a surprise endorsement over the weekend has made the final stretch even more volatile.
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For Ontario auto workers, households paying more for U.S.-made goods and anyone holding trade-sensitive stocks, the election outcome is worth watching closely, though not necessarily for the reasons you might think.
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Why does a Michigan Senate race matter to Canadians?
The state of Michigan and Canada share deeply linked economies, built largely around cars. According to the Canadian Press, the auto industry on both sides of the border has been struggling with 25% auto tariffs for vehicles finished in Canada, which President Donald Trump has threatened to raise to 50% next year. That increase kicks in if there’s no trade deal by January 2027.
The fight widened this summer when Washington imposed a 50% tariff on $27.6 billion in Canadian goods on Aug. 22, 2026. Ottawa answered with dollar-for-dollar counter-tariffs of 15%, 25% or 50% starting Sept. 8.
Who wins the seat also matters for who controls the Senate. Securing the seat is crucial to Democrats’ hopes of a Senate majority, and the result could decide whether they can check Trump’s use of executive power for the rest of his term.
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Where do Rogers and El-Sayed stand on Canada?
Rogers, a former congressman backed by Trump, changed his tone in October. In a campaign ad, holding a Labatt’s beer at a bar, he said Michigan residents “know that Canada is not our enemy” and called for an end to the tariff war. That was a shift: as recently as August, he praised the tariffs as “necessary” while cautioning they weren’t a one-size-fits-all solution. Trump said he interpreted the ad as Rogers saying Canada should make a deal.
For his part, El-Sayed has opposed the Canada tariffs the whole time. He says he supports targeted tariffs to restore Michigan manufacturing, but calls the action against Canada a “vanity trade war.” El-Sayed also argued that, unlike himself, Rogers backed the tariffs from the start.
Then, with less than 48 hours to go, El-Sayed’s former primary rival, Democratic congresswoman Haley Stevens, endorsed Rogers and was quickly rebuked by Democrats. Meanwhile, multiple polls show most Michiganders, across party lines, disapprove of the tariffs on Canada.
Can the winner actually end the tariffs?
No matter who wins the senate race in Michigan, they can’t actually end tariffs on their own. The latest U.S. duties came from three presidential proclamations. One Senate seat can’t and won’t reverse them.
What the race does, however, is add pressure. Sources in both countries told CTV News that U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick restarted stalled talks with Canada just over 10 days ago, timed by design with mounting pressure on Trump before the midterms. The U.S. has reportedly offered to cut tariffs to 15%, but only on cars and light trucks, while Canada wanted larger trucks included.
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In other words, any tariff relief may come partially and in stages, not all at once.
Which Canadians are most exposed?
Auto and parts workers are on the front line of the tariff war. Employment in motor vehicle and parts manufacturing fell nearly 6% from January 2025 to March 2026, according to the C.D. Howe Institute, an independent non-profit public policy think tank. Ontario’s Financial Accountability Office (FAO) projected in 2025 that U.S. tariffs could leave Ontario with 119,200 fewer jobs in 2026 than a no-tariff scenario, with manufacturing hit hardest.
Canadian shoppers feel the trade war, too. Canada’s counter-tariff list includes dairy, appliances, electronics, furniture, apparel and personal care products, all of which can raise the bill you pay at the till.
What to do now
The Michigan senate vote won’t settle the trade war, but the next few months could shape it. Here are a few practical moves you can make to insulate yourself from the impact of the trade war:
- Stress-test your income: If your job depends on autos, steel or cross-border trade, build up emergency savings now, before a possible January increase
- Check before you buy: For big-ticket purchases that are made in the U.S., search the federal counter-tariff list and compare Canadian or non-U.S. alternatives. Ottawa has encouraged consumers to switch to Canadian-made products to ease the burden of higher prices
- Don’t trade on election night: Trade-sensitive stocks may swing on results and headlines, so review your portfolio mix with an advisor instead of reacting to one vote
- Watch the deadline: A deal before January 2027, even a partial cut on cars and light trucks, would ease pressure on the auto sector
Whoever wins the Michigan senate race, the tariffs themselves will be settled between Washington and Ottawa, not on the Senate floor. But the race is one to watch because it’s adding pressure while negotiators are back at the table after months of stalled talks.
For your finances, the date to watch isn’t Nov. 3 but January 2027. That’s when, without a deal, tariffs on Canadian-made cars, trucks and auto parts are set to double to 50%. If a deal comes first, even a partial one, the pressure on auto jobs and prices eases. If no deal emerges, the fallout will hit hard. Households that build savings and reduce risk now will be the best prepared.
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Leslie Kennedy served as an editor at Thomson Reuters and for Star Media Group, followed by a number of years as a writer and editor and content manager in marketing communications, before returning to her editorial roots. She is a graduate of Humber College’s post-graduate journalism program and has been a professional writer and editor ever since.
