Oct 13, 2026
Sitting at a Michigan bar with a Labatt in hand, Republican Senate hopeful Mike Rogers delivered a line few Canadians expected to hear from a staunch Trump ally: Canada, he told voters, is not the enemy.
The former congressman is locked in a tight race for the state’s open U.S. Senate seat against Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed and is now pushing to end the tariff war. Rogers previously served seven terms in the U.S. House of Representatives as a congressman.
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It’s the clearest sign yet that the trade fight between the two neighbouring nations is pinching voters on both sides of the Gordie Howe Bridge. It could also matter in the Nov. 3 midterm elections.
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While it’s tempting to read that as relief on the way, a campaign ad isn’t a trade deal. U.S. tariffs and Canada’s retaliatory levies are still shaping what Canadians pay at the store, how secure their jobs feel and what their next mortgage renewal could look like.
What did Mike Rogers say — and does it change anything?
In an ad released last week, Rogers told Michiganders that “Canada is not our enemy” while also calling for an immediate end to the trade war.
That’s a sharp turn from where Rogers stood just weeks earlier. In an Aug. 29 statement, about a week after Trump’s 50% tariffs took effect, Rogers said “tariffs are necessary” — he also noted that tariffs weren’t a comprehensive solution. El-Sayed has since accused him of flip-flopping on the topic, and Rogers now concedes the tariffs will negatively impact Michigan consumers.
Even now, Rogers isn’t rejecting tariffs outright. At a debate on Oct. 8, he noted that Canada also taxes U.S. goods, but argued that American levies on Canadian goods have climbed too high and should be scrapped. It’s important to note that neither candidate has ruled out future duties.
The White House has not changed its stance since the trade war ramped up. When asked about the ad, U.S. President Donald Trump said he understood it to mean that Canada should make a deal — he added that his administration still isn’t satisfied.
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Which goods are being taxed right now?
After negotiations collapsed Aug. 22, the U.S. imposed 50% tariffs on a range of Canadian imports.
Ottawa responded in kind on Sept. 8, charging counter-tariffs of 15%, 25% and 50% on about $27.6 billion of U.S. imports, according to the Department of Finance Canada.
The 50% rate was placed on steel, aluminum and iron products, as well as furniture, motorbikes, clothing and some beauty products. Dairy, household appliances, agricultural equipment and electronics are also covered, at varying rates. All surtaxes apply only to U.S.-origin goods, not items shipped through the U.S. from elsewhere.
How could the tariff war hit your wallet?
The Bank of Canada held its key rate at 2.25% on Sept. 2, its seventh straight hold. BoC Governor Tiff Macklem later warned that these new tariffs and counter-tariffs will raise costs for some businesses and could feed into consumer prices over time.
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A Reuters poll of 35 economists found that 47% of those who gave an opinion expect at least one rate increase in the first half of 2027. That is particularly pertinent for variable-rate borrowers and anyone renewing a mortgage in the coming months, as any rate increase would directly influence lending rates.
Jobs are softening, too. Employment fell by 68,000 in September, the second straight monthly decline. That pushed unemployment to 6.5%, with manufacturing having lost 13,000 jobs — nearly one-fifth of that total. Ontario’s unemployment rate is at 7%, which is relatively unchanged from the previous month but down 0.9 percentage points year-over-year. Additionally, the job-finding rate (the share of people unemployed in August who found work in September) fell to 30.6%. This figure is well below the 2017 to 2019 average of 36.5%.
While not all of that is tariff-driven — education and health care also shed jobs — workers in trade-exposed industries have the most at stake. Stellantis, which operates an assembly plant in Windsor, Ont., linked recent layoffs partly to tariffs. Stelco is in a similar position: it’s currently embroiled in controversy over a decision to axe up to 500 employees across its Hamilton and Nanticoke, Ont., facilities.
Could the U.S. midterms end the trade war?
Possibly, but not overnight. Tariff decisions are driven largely by the executive branch, while the new senators, who will include either Rogers or El-Sayed, won’t be sworn in until January.
The midterms are a potential turning point, not a concrete solution.
What to do now
- Check labels on big-ticket items: Counter-tariffs target U.S.-origin goods, so Canadian-made or non-U.S. alternatives may cost less
- Stress-test your mortgage: If you have a variable rate or a renewal within the next year, ask your lender or broker what a higher rate would mean for your monthly payment
- Build your cash buffer: Workers in auto, steel and other manufacturing should prioritize emergency savings over discretionary spending since their industries are directly exposed
- Know your Employment Insurance (EI) options: If you’re laid off, apply for EI as soon as you stop working and check recent changes to the program
- Don’t bet your portfolio on an election: Keep your RRSP and TFSA investments matched to your specific financial timeline, not the headlines
- Mark your calendar: The BoC decides on rates Oct. 28, Americans vote Nov. 3 and StatCan’s next jobs report lands Nov. 6
Rogers’s ad shows pressure is building south of the border, and that’s worth keeping an eye on. But the smartest moves right now are the ones that pay off whether a deal arrives in January or not. Referring to both the trade dispute and high energy prices, the Bank of Canada put it plainly in September: “Both situations remain fluid.”
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Writer and editor based in Toronto with experience in personal finance, insurance, arts and culture and branded content.
