Sep 14, 2026
For much of its modern history, Newfoundland and Labrador carried the reputation of a ‘have-not’ province — a Canadian economic term for regions with lower revenue-generating capacity that qualify for federal equalization payments.
Historically regarded as one of the country's smaller, slower-growing economies, the Atlantic province is turning that narrative on its head. This year, it is projected to be Canada’s fastest-growing province by a wide margin, while Ontario, long the national economic engine, is barely growing at all.
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A new report from Signal49 Research, the think tank formerly known as the Conference Board of Canada, shows just how far apart the two provinces have drifted. Newfoundland and Labrador is set to lead the country’s growth for a second year in a row, while Ontario is expected to post the weakest growth of any province.
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Understanding that gap offers a far clearer picture of Canada’s economic trajectory than any national average. Here’s what’s driving it, and what it signals for the country’s regional economies.
What did the report actually find?
Newfoundland and Labrador’s economy is projected to grow 3.7% in 2026, driven by higher crude prices and offshore oil projects. Most other provinces will grow by roughly 1.5%, but Ontario and Quebec are expected to fall well short of that. Ontario’s economy is forecast to expand just 0.2%, the weakest of any province, while Quebec is expected to grow 0.7%.
Richard Forbes, lead economist at Signal49 Research, says the reasons vary sharply by region. “The increased energy prices have had benefits for some provinces, while the tariffs have been hardest on Ontario and Quebec due to the exposure in the manufacturing sector,” he said in a news release.
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Why is Ontario stalling?
Ontario and Quebec have been hit hardest by U.S. tariffs because of how much of their economies depend on manufacturing. Ontario’s exposure runs especially deep in the auto sector, which the report says has been targeted since early 2025 and is almost entirely concentrated in the province. Quebec faces a similar squeeze, though Signal49 Research expects some relief there as exports, employment and investment rebound later in the year.
In other words, Ontario’s slowdown isn’t spread evenly across its economy. It’s concentrated in specific industries, which means the risk to your income depends heavily on your sector, not just your postal code.
Why is Newfoundland and Labrador’s turnaround unlikely to last?
Higher oil prices and offshore production have made Newfoundland and Labrador the country’s growth leader again this year. But the report is clear that this is a near-term story.
Over the longer run, Signal49 Research expects the province to be among the weakest performers in the country, held back by an older population and difficulty attracting migrants. A strong short-term growth number, in other words, doesn’t automatically mean a strong long-term job or housing market.
A new definition of ‘have’ and ‘have-not’
The stark contrast between Newfoundland and Labrador and Ontario shows how fluid Canada’s economic hierarchy has become. For decades, the ‘have-not’ designation implied a structural disadvantage, while Ontario’s industrial base guaranteed top-tier growth. Today, trade shocks and resource surges are blurring those historical roles. A government worker in Ottawa and an auto-parts employee in Windsor both live in Ontario, but they are experiencing fundamentally different economic environments.
Meanwhile, Newfoundland and Labrador’s sudden rise shows how quickly commodity cycles can elevate a regional economy, even as underlying demographic challenges remain. Signal49 Research expects overall conditions to improve through the second half of the year as business confidence returns, but the widening gap between an energy-fueled Atlantic boom and a struggling manufacturing heartland proves that Canada's regional fortunes are no longer bound to old labels.
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Amy Tokic is an SEO content editor for Money.ca. She holds a B.A. in Communications from the University of Windsor. Amy is an award-winning author and has been writing professionally for 15 years, publishing articles in the lifestyle and health sectors.
