Oct 26, 2026
In a single Sunday TV interview, one of U.S. President Donald Trump’s top economic advisors said trade talks with Canada had been all but impossible — and that a deal was almost done.
Kevin Hassett blamed the delay on Canada’s recent political calendar, including Alberta’s vote on separation. In the same appearance, he said negotiations were “gathering steam.”
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For Canadians, the mixed signals aren’t just political theatre. A new round of 50% U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods takes effect later this week, on Oct. 30, and the Bank of Canada is predicted to increase interest rates two days earlier. Both can hit household budgets whether or not a deal gets signed.
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What did the White House say about Alberta?
Hassett, director of the National Economic Council (NEC), the White House office that coordinates U.S. economic policy, spoke on Fox News Sunday on Oct. 25. Asked why Trump’s tariffs hadn’t yet produced a deal, he pointed fingers at the “Canadian election that just happened, including Alberta separating,” which he said made it “essentially impossible to negotiate with the Canadians.”
Alberta overwhelmingly voted to stay. On Oct. 19, about 75% of voters chose to remain in Canada rather than start the process toward a binding separation referendum.
Hassett also said U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick spent last week talking with his Canadian counterparts. Trump echoed that optimism at a Sunday rally in Port Huron, MI. “We’ll have that settled pretty soon,” he told the crowd.
Prime Minister Mark Carney says Canada is ready but not rushing. “We could sign it this afternoon if the U.S. were there,” he told reporters.
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Which tariffs change on Oct. 30 and who feels them?
Washington’s latest shuffle removes 50% tariffs on some Canadian goods, including seaweed, packing boxes and some plywood sheets. It adds others, including cocoa powder, vinyl flooring and shampoo. The full product list is posted by the White House.
International trade lawyer Barry Appleton told CTV News the overall policy hasn’t retreated: “Washington didn’t lower the tariff wall ... they kind of moved some bricks around.”
Those bricks land right on Canadian employers. Jean-François Dufresne, CEO of Quebec hardwood flooring maker Preverco, told CTV News the new duties could cost the company a quarter of its business overnight.
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Prices at home are shaped by Canada’s response, too. The federal government has counter-tariffs on $27.6 billion in U.S. imports, with an emphasis on steel, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper and electronics.
Why does Wednesday’s rate decision matter more to your wallet?
The Bank of Canada announces its next rate decision on Oct. 28. The BoC has held its policy rate at 2.25% for seven straight meetings, but financial markets put the odds of a quarter-point hike at nearly 78% as of Oct. 23.
Inflation is the main trigger, and Statistics Canada recently reported that annual inflation rose to 3.1% in September as conflict in the Middle East pushed up gas prices.
Trade still factors in. “A rate hike might be a fine decision if things go well in future trade talks and energy prices stay high,” Avery Shenfeld, chief economist at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC), told The Globe and Mail.
If you carry a variable-rate mortgage, each quarter-point increase adds about $250 a year in interest for every $100,000 owed. Fixed-rate borrowers won’t feel a change unless they are set to renew.
What to do now
A deal could close quickly or take months. Either way, these moves can limit the impact:
- Check whether your variable-rate mortgage payment adjusts with prime or stays fixed, and ask your lender what locking in would cost
- If you work in a tariff-exposed sector such as steel, lumber, autos or flooring, build an emergency fund that will cover several months of expenses
- Avoid selling investments on trade headlines, which have reversed within days this month
- Keep up with regular contributions to your Tax-Free Savings Account (TFSA) and Registered Retirement Savings Plan (RRSP)
- If you’re in the market, compare prices on appliances and electronics, which are among U.S. goods hit by Canada’s counter-tariffs
- Savers can check high-interest savings account (HISA) and guaranteed investment certificate (GIC) rates after Wednesday’s decision
The bigger risk isn’t one tariff list or announcement from Carney or Trump. It’s building a budget around a deadline nobody in Ottawa or Washington controls. Mark Carney has made clear Canada wants the right deal over a fast one: “We don’t care about the timing of that.”
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Leslie Kennedy served as an editor at Thomson Reuters and for Star Media Group, followed by a number of years as a writer and editor and content manager in marketing communications, before returning to her editorial roots. She is a graduate of Humber College’s post-graduate journalism program and has been a professional writer and editor ever since.
