Sep 6, 2026
If you were bracing for slashed raises in 2027 because of the shaky economy, new survey data suggests you can breathe a little easier.
Normandin Beaudry, an actuarial and total rewards consulting firm, surveyed more than 800 Canadian organizations for its 16th annual Salary Increase Survey. The results show employers plan to keep salary increase budgets essentially flat for 2027, at an average of 3.1%, excluding salary freezes. That number matches actual 2026 budgets.
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Here’s the part that may surprise workers: this steadiness is holding even though Canada is currently in what economists call a “technical recession.” The assumption that a slowing economy automatically means smaller raises — or none at all — doesn’t match what employers are actually planning.
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What a 3.1% raise actually looks like
For a Canadian earning $65,000, a 3.1% increase works out to about $2,015 a year. That’s a reasonable planning number for 2027 — not a guarantee, but a realistic benchmark to bring into a performance review or job offer conversation.
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Some sectors are budgeting above average
Not every industry is planning the same increase. Normandin Beaudry’s data shows several sectors are expecting higher-than-average budgets for 2027:
- Telecommunications, data processing and warehousing: 3.4%
- Finance and insurance: 3.4%
- Real estate, rental and leasing: 3.3%
- Technology: 3.3%
- Construction: 3.3%
- Professional, scientific and technical services: 3.2%
If you work in one of these sectors, the 3.1% national average may undersell your realistic ask. Knowing where your industry sits relative to the average gives you a concrete number to anchor a negotiation, instead of guessing.
There’s a second pool of money most employees don’t ask about
Beyond general increase budgets, 46% of organizations plan to set aside an additional 0.9%, on average, to specifically address compensation pressure points. Employers use this money for market-driven adjustments, retaining people in critical roles and rewarding top performers.
“After continued reductions in salary budgets in recent compensation cycles, salary increases have been trending back toward pre-pandemic levels since 2025,” Darcy Clark, senior principal, Compensation, Talent and Culture at Normandin Beaudry said in a statement.
This additional budget is worth knowing about because it isn’t automatic — it typically goes to employees who make the case that their role is hard to replace, or that their pay has fallen behind the market. If you don’t ask, you’re less likely to be considered for it.
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That selectivity reflects a broader shift in how Canadian employers approach compensation amid economic uncertainty. Elizabeth English, senior principal in the career practice at Mercer, a global professional services and consulting firm, told Canadian HR Reporter that organizations are being more deliberate with pay decisions in order to “make every dollar count.”
What to do before your next review
If you’ve been an excellent employee that has increasingly hit or exceeded targets in your role, it may be a good opportunity to seek out a potential raise. However, make sure to do your due diligence before meeting with your superior.
Here are some tips that can better prepare you for that oftentimes uncomfortable conversation:
- Look up where your industry sits against the 3.1% national average
- Bring evidence that your role is in high demand or hard to backfill, since that’s what taps into the extra 0.9% pool
- Treat 3.1% as a floor to negotiate from, not a ceiling
- If your raise comes in below 3.1% with no explanation, ask directly what budget your employer allocated and why
A technical recession understandably makes workers brace for the worst. But this year’s data is a reminder that salary considerations and economic headlines don’t always move in lockstep. The more useful question isn’t whether raises are coming — it’s whether you’re positioned to get your share of the budget that’s already been set aside.
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Writer and editor based in Toronto with experience in personal finance, insurance, arts and culture and branded content.
