Could ICBC auto insurance rates double if the BC Conservatives win? What Canadians in B.C. should know before Oct. 24 election

A letter from Conservative Party of BC Leader, Lorne Doerkson, addressed openly to lawyers and insurance industry groups, says his party would replace the no-fault model run by the Insurance Corporation of British Columbia (ICBC), the Crown corporation that sells mandatory basic auto coverage in the province.

Opponents of the idea warn that drivers’ auto insurance premiums could double — potentially overnight. The Conservatives say that figure is unsupported.

With B.C. residents heading to the polls Oct. 24, here’s what to know about the proposal and the claims.

What are the BC Conservatives actually proposing for ICBC?

In a Sept. 29 letter to the Insurance Bureau of Canada (IBC), the Law Society of British Columbia, the Trial Lawyers Association of British Columbia and the Canadian Bar Association’s B.C. branch, Doerkson committed to legislation in a Conservative government’s first year that would overhaul auto insurance across the province. He explained that this proposed legislation would restore the ability of seriously injured crash victims to sue.

According to Doerkson, this plan is a “hybrid” model, which combines no-fault benefits with some right to sue opportunities.

As Doerkson explains: “It will keep rates affordable for drivers and protect people seriously hurt by reckless drivers. Ontario, Alberta, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, PEI and Newfoundland and Labrador all run hybrid models. We can learn from them and do better.”

He continues, writing that “everything’s on the table, including opening auto insurance to private competition.” He also argued that people seriously hurt by reckless drivers deserve “their day in an independent court.”

What Doerkson’s open letter didn’t offer is an estimate of how much premiums will increase — and he didn’t commit to private competition, but framed it as an option.

When questioned, further, by reporters, Doerkson responded saying there are ”no promises” about the plan.

Where does the ‘rates could double’ warning come from?

The warning of possible spiking insurance premiums comes from MoveUP, a union representing about 5,000 ICBC workers, in an open letter released on Oct. 6, 2026. B.C. Premier David Eby has made the same claim.

MoveUP points to a 2022 Ernst & Young (EY) study, commissioned by ICBC, that compared 30 driver profiles across nine provinces. For an 18-year-old male novice driving a 2012 Honda Civic, average premiums were $2,551 in B.C. versus $5,936 in Alberta. For a 37-year-old driving a 2021 Tesla Model 3, average premiums were $1,855 in B.C. versus $4,200 in Alberta. Keep in mind, those weren’t theoretical gaps — but real people and real dollar differences, depending on the province of residence.

Despite this real-world data, there’s no certainty that a B.C. hybrid system would cost twice as much.

Why did B.C. switch to no-fault insurance in the first place?

Before 2021, ICBC was losing billions, which Eby once called a “financial dumpster fire.” The changes meant that Enhanced Care, ICBC’s no-fault model, removed the option for most injury lawsuits — legal suits often awarded to pay for care and recovery benefits regardless of who caused the crash. According to the B.C. government, the switch saved the average customer $496 — about 28%, on average. Since the switch, eligible customers have also received $640 in five rebates, worth roughly $2.7 billion in total.

The tradeoff is that in most cases, you can’t sue an at-fault driver for pain and suffering.

This is the part of the system that isn’t working, says Doerkson — making it “very challenging” for some injured B.C. residents.

But B.C. Transportation Minister, Mike Farnworth, counters Doerkson’s claim that legal action is the best option. Under the old system — when legal claims were allowed — claimants could wait years for a court ruling and lose roughly a third of a settlement to legal fees.