Kevin O'Leary warns geopolitical risk is real — and says gold and real estate belong in every Canadian's portfolio

"I was going to make one observation regarding negotiating with Xi, which is unique to every other country," O'Leary said during a Fox Business appearance. "Xi — and I know Trump would not do this to him — would never submit himself to the rotisserie-chicken White House press conference. Never. That's never going to happen."

He pointed out that negotiations with China are more delicate because of how Xi operates — and that the TikTok situation is just one example of how charged things have become.

The implications, O'Leary argues, are serious for any investor with exposure to Chinese companies.

"You've got to think about that going forward, when you're putting together an international fund, how many of these Chinese golden-share companies do I [want to own]?" O'Leary has said. And he is clear: "I'm not going to own any."

O'Leary's warning underscores a broader concern: Rising geopolitical risks and unpredictable trade tensions can rattle even the biggest names in global business. For investors, that uncertainty is a powerful reminder of the need to hedge their portfolios — and protect their wealth from shocks that can ripple across borders.

Will TikTok lose its market share — and should investors care?

O'Leary noted that TikTok's U.S. business represented about 8.4% of ByteDance's market cap — not enough on its own to cause panic. The real risk, he argued, lay in the domino effect.

"All of a sudden, what those of us who are very involved in the TikTok deal are hearing, Canada says, 'Wait a second.' If it goes dark in the U.S. — lights out in Canada, then you're over in Europe. Other countries say, 'Well, wait a minute. It must be spyware if the U.S. shut it off,' just like India did. And slowly but surely, that market cap is being chiselled [away] — one country at a time."

In Canada, the federal government ordered the wind-up of TikTok's Canadian offices in November 2024, though consumer access to the app was never cut. A joint privacy investigation by Canada's Office of the Privacy Commissioner and three provincial regulators found TikTok's protections for youth "inadequate" in 2025 (2). The situation shifted again on March 9, 2026, when Innovation Minister Mélanie Joly announced TikTok Technology Canada Inc. would be permitted to continue operating — subject to new legally binding undertakings on data access, child safety and an independent third-party monitor (3).

For investors and advertisers, the platform's regulatory path remains fluid. And according to O'Leary, the broader lesson is clear: When a government can upend a platform's valuation with a single policy decision, the risk is systemic — not just company-specific.

“Do you think Xi gives a boop about $20 billion? He doesn't give a boop about $20 billion… It's such a rounding error," O'Leary said. "All shareholders are waking up to this, all investors.”

Build your own investment portfolio. An account at a discount brokerage helps you take control of your investments — and strategically plan your future. For instance, if you open a discount brokerage account with CIBC Investor’s Edge you can diversify your portfolio without having to pay exorbitant commissions on trades. Active traders making over 150 trades a quarter can enjoy a discounted commission rate of $4.95 per trade. Plus, CIBC doesn’t charge any account or maintenance fees if the combined market balance of all accounts is greater than $10,000. You can get real-time news and stock alerts, helping you keep track of market shifts and stay informed with either the CIBC Investor's Edge online platform or mobile trading platform.

Get 200 free trades when you open a CIBC Investor’s Edge account using promo code EDGE2026. Plus, enjoy unlimited commission-free trades on over 180 select ETFs. Terms and conditions apply. Offer ends September 30, 2026.

Investors can find portfolio safety in alternative assets

In turbulent times, investors often seek out assets that can weather the storm. One that continues to stand out — according to O'Leary and legendary hedge fund manager Ray Dalio — is gold.

O'Leary consistently maintains roughly 5% towards gold allocation in his own portfolio, holding physical bullion — 100g and 1kg bars as well as coins — and rebalancing quarterly. He views it as a "permanent position rather than a tactical trade," according to a January 2026 interview on the CEO.ca podcast (4). For investors who worry about geopolitical disruption, O'Leary argues that institutional capital can access gold through bullion, miners and ETFs — making it one of the most flexible hedges available.

O'Leary's broader portfolio follows a 60% equities, 20% bonds, 20% alternatives split — with gold sitting inside that alternatives bucket alongside other non-traditional holdings (5).

Dalio has been even more emphatic. In a February 2026 appearance at the World Governments Summit in Dubai, he told CNBC that the world is on the brink of a "capital war" — and that gold is the clearest protection (6).

"In reserve currencies, gold is the second largest reserve currency," Dalio told CNBC. "Because gold is a diversifier, when the bad times come along, it does uniquely well."

In a March 2026 essay, Dalio went further, warning that "the post-1945 world order has broken down and the world is now moving through a period in which there are no rules, might is right, and there is a clash of great powers." In written commentary, he has called gold "the safest money" — arguing it is the only storehouse of value that cannot be devalued by central banks, seized in cyberattacks or destroyed by inflation (7). His allocation advice is explicit: "One should have between five and 15% of their portfolio in gold," he told TheStreet — and in May 2026, he reiterated the point, telling investors: "You want to come out of this with a win."

Over the past 12 months, gold prices have climbed roughly 42%, with the spot price sitting near US$4,700 per troy ounce as of mid-May 2026 — equivalent to roughly C$6,450 per ounce at current exchange rates. Gold crossed US$4,000 for the first time in October 2025 and hit an all-time high of US$5,602 on January 28, 2026 before pulling back to its current range. Major Wall Street banks remain bullish: J.P. Morgan, Wells Fargo and UBS all have year-end 2026 targets above US$6,000 per ounce.

Dalio has also pushed back against investors who hesitate because gold has pulled back from its January peak. "Gold is up about 65% from a year ago, and down about 16% from its high, and I think people make the mistake of thinking, is it going to go up and down, and should I buy it?" he told CNBC (8). His answer: Size the position and hold it.

Long seen as the ultimate safe haven, gold isn't tied to any single country, currency or economy. It can't be printed out of thin air like fiat money, and in times of economic turmoil or geopolitical uncertainty, investors tend to pile in — driving up its value.

Institutional demand continues to underpin the rally. Central banks bought a net 863 tonnes of gold in 2025, according to the World Gold Council, and 95% of respondents to the Council's reserve survey expected global central-bank gold holdings to keep rising over the next 12 months. That kind of structural buying helps explain why gold has held up even as short-term sentiment has cooled.

How to invest in gold in Canada

Gold is considered a potential hedge against market volatility and economic uncertainty. There are several ways to invest in gold, either directly or indirectly:

• Buy physical gold: coins, bars or bullion
• Buy gold ETFs that track the price of gold
• Buy gold stocks in gold-mining companies

Gold investment options

Bullion. Purchasing bullion — coins, or bars — is the most traditional way to invest in gold. Canadian investors can make their purchase at CIBC branches or online through TD Precious Metals, CIBC Precious Metals Fund, or the Royal Canadian Mint. As of mid-May 2026, the spot price for one troy ounce of gold is approximately C$6,450.

• Don't settle for average banking. Discover which Canadian institutions offer the best digital tools, lowest fees, and highest rewards for your lifestyle.

ETFs. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are a simple way for new investors to get in on the gold market without the risk associated with investing in specific mining companies. ETFs offer a variety of investment strategies: Some track the value of gold futures, directly invest in the companies that mine metal, or are backed by physical gold in secure vaults. Canadian investors who buy an ETF or index fund gain exposure to gold without the risk of picking a winning stock.

• Ready to take control of your portfolio? Use our ultimate guide to compare account fees, trading tools, and sign-up bonuses for Canada's leading investment platforms.

Stocks. Gold stocks are shares of Canadian gold mining companies, and they can be purchased through a brokerage account. One advantage of gold stocks is that these mining companies can sometimes redirect to other precious metals if gold prices fall. However, this investment comes with distinct risks: Regardless of the price of gold, a company's stock price can decline due to poor financials or management.

• Whether you’re a beginner or a pro, we’ve found the best trading platforms for you. Read our full breakdown to see which Canadian broker offers the tools you need to grow your wealth.

Real estate also provides a haven for investors

If gold is the go-to hedge for moments of chaos, real estate is the long game. While property values can fluctuate — just like stocks — real estate doesn't rely on a booming market to generate returns.

Even in a recession, high-quality, essential properties keep generating passive income through rent. In other words, you don't have to wait for prices to rise to see a payoff — the asset itself can work for you.