Nov 4, 2026
After a weekend call with President Donald Trump, Prime Minister Mark Carney says trade talks with the U.S. have become “more intense.” Speaking in Antigua on Nov. 3, he said both sides have made progress, but a deal isn’t done.
Trump, who has been predicting a deal for more than a week, told Fox News the same day that one is coming “very soon,” but noted that work still remains.
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It’s tempting to treat that as a sign that prices, interest rates and job worries will soon ease. But until a deal is agreed upon and its terms are public, tariffs on both sides of the border will stay in place. That includes Canada’s counter-tariffs on U.S.-made goods.
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What changed in Canada-U.S. trade talks this week?
Carney said Washington has dropped demands that crossed some of Canada’s “red lines,” including language and culture and the nation’s right to negotiate trade deals with other countries. U.S. negotiators had also objected to rules that make French-language content easy to find on streaming platforms such as Netflix.
A 50% U.S. tariff on $27.6 billion of Canadian goods took effect on Aug. 22. The original list included wine, furniture, dairy, cement, clothing and hockey equipment, among others. The U.S. has since revised the list and banned some Canadian products outright.
Carney didn’t mention which issues remain unresolved, but CBC reports that autos are expected to be a key sticking point, as they were in August. He also said talks don’t require negotiators in Washington: “It’s not always necessary to have the trade negotiators go in formally into the U.S. trade representative’s offices or the Department of Commerce.”
The timing for this apparent reversal is notable. Democrats won control of both the House and the Senate in the Nov. 3 U.S. midterm elections in a major rebuke of Trump and MAGA. But Trump imposed the tariffs using his own executive powers, so the new Congress, which takes office in January, can’t simply cancel them.
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Why won’t a deal lower your shopping bill right away?
Canada responded to the U.S. levies on Sept. 8 with dollar-for-dollar counter-tariffs of 15%, 25% or 50% on U.S.-made goods. The federal product list includes plenty of everyday items: cheese and toilet paper at 25%; perfume, makeup, cotton T-shirts and synthetic winter coats at 50%; gas stoves and kitchen knives at 25%.
Even if a deal removes some of these tariffs, retailers may need time to sell through stock bought at higher prices.
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Tariffs also aren’t the only pressure on your wallet. Annual inflation rose to 3.1% in September, according to Statistics Canada. Gas prices were the biggest driver, having jumped 27.8% year over year. Excluding gasoline, prices rose 2.2%. The Bank of Canada expects inflation to reach about 3.5% by year-end, mostly due to high oil prices as a result of the conflict in the Middle East.
More price increases may be coming. In the BoC’s latest Business Outlook Survey, roughly half of firms said they plan to pass some or all of their cost increases on to customers, more than in the previous quarter.
Who is most exposed if talks stall again?
Workers in industries hit by U.S. tariffs carry the most direct risk, including steel, aluminum and lumber, dairy and furniture.
Auto workers face a separate deadline, as Trump has threatened to raise U.S. tariffs on Canadian cars, trucks, auto parts and steel to 50% on Jan. 1, 2027. Currently, Canadian-built vehicles face 25% on their non-U.S. content.
Markets are already reacting. The loonie reached its strongest level since mid-September on Oct. 30 as trade headlines turned positive. But strategists at Scotiabank said narrowing gaps between Canadian and U.S. interest rates drove most of the currency’s recent gains. Those gains could reverse quickly if talks stall again.
What to do now
- Check labels on big purchases, since counter-tariffs apply to goods made in the U.S., not ones that are just shipped from there
- Avoid delaying essential purchases on hopes of a deal, since no timeline has been announced
- Build bigger emergency savings if you work in a tariff-exposed industry
- Skip headline-driven trades in your TFSA or RRSP and keep your portfolio diversified
A deal would remove one source of uncertainty, but your budget should be built for the economy as it is today, not the one negotiators are hinting at. As Carney put it: “We’ve made progress but we haven’t finished.”
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Writer and editor based in Toronto with experience in personal finance, insurance, arts and culture and branded content.
