Nov 12, 2026
For current Toronto or Vancouver homeowners planning to upsize, shifting market conditions are beginning to offer improved leverage for buyers.
High-end home sales fell in 6 of 13 Canadian markets tracked during the first nine months of 2026, with the steepest drops in Greater Vancouver and across the Greater Toronto Area — led by a sharp pullback in Oakville. Meanwhile, luxury buyers drove double-digit sales gains in Calgary, Edmonton and the GTA municipality of Burlington.
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For established homeowners, softer prices at the top can shrink the gap between what your current place sells for and what a move-up home costs. But with another rate hike and five-figure closing costs, a lower sticker price doesn’t make that dream home a slam-dunk deal.
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Where are luxury home sales rising and falling?
Those figures come from the REMAX Canada Fall/Winter 2026 Spotlight on Luxury Report, by the Canadian arm of the global real estate franchisor. The study evaluated luxury market activity across 13 major Canadian urban centres and suburban sub-markets from January 1 to September 30, 2026, compared to the same period in 2025. Each market has its own luxury threshold, ranging from $800,000 in St. John’s to $2.4 million in Burlington and $3.25 million in Oakville.
Burlington led the pack with a 26.3% jump in sales above $2.4 million. St. John’s (21%), Calgary (20.6%), Edmonton (15.9%) and Saskatoon (15.3%) followed. The report credits the surge to energy investments in Alberta and Newfoundland and Labrador, plus Saskatchewan’s resource and agricultural strengths.
At the other end of the spectrum, sales above $3 million fell 17% in Greater Vancouver and 9.4% across the broader GTA. In Oakville, where RE/MAX set the benchmark at $3.25 million, luxury transactions dropped 16.7%.
“Regional economic strength is shaping luxury demand, with stronger economies providing a sturdier foundation for homebuying activity,” says Don Kottick, president of REMAX Canada.
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Why is the move-up gap shrinking in major markets?
Across Greater Vancouver, London, and the GTA — including key suburban enclaves like Oakville — the report spotted an encouraging trend: the cost leap between an everyday starter home and a high-end property is starting to shrink. That’s nudging established owners to trade up, even if it means accepting less for their current home. Growing inventory has handed buyers fresh leverage to negotiate better deals.
The softness sits in the middle of the luxury market, not at the very top. GTA sales above $7.5M jumped 17.6%, while the City of Toronto recorded 15 deals over $10 million — a 10-year peak. Oakville mirrored that trend: while sales above $3.25 million slowed, transactions over $5 million jumped nearly 18%.
“Most luxury buyers have the financial resources to act, but economic and geopolitical concerns are giving purchasers reason to pause,” says Michael Altneu, vice-president of luxury at REMAX.
How does the Bank of Canada’s rate hike change the math?
But the opportunity comes with a catch. On Oct. 28, the Bank of Canada raised its policy rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 2.5%, its first increase since July 2023, with inflation at 3.1%. Governor Tiff Macklem warned that “there could be a need to raise the policy rate further,” though he said the bank would proceed carefully.
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That matters most if you hold a variable-rate mortgage, use a HELOC or need more debt to fund the upgrade. CMHC also reported that Ontario’s mortgage arrears rate hit 0.32% in the second quarter. It projects rate hikes will continue straight through mid-2027.
What does trading up really cost?
In this scenario, a homeowner in the GTA sells an existing property for $1.1 million and purchases a replacement home for $1.5 million. Based on Ontario’s land transfer tax brackets, the tax on the new home alone would be $26,475. Toronto buyers face a double hit: the city’s municipal land transfer tax applies on top of provincial fees.
Then add real estate commissions on the sale, legal fees, moving costs and any penalty for breaking your current mortgage early. A $400,000 home upgrade costs far more than the headline price gap.
There’s another wrinkle. In a slowing market, your current home will likely fetch less, too. The number that matters is the net gap after both transactions, not the discount on the house you want.
What to do now
Before you list, run your own numbers:
- Run a comparative market analysis on your existing home and your target properties before jumping in
- Price out every closing cost, including land transfer tax and mortgage penalties
- Stress-test your mortgage payments at rates well above today’s benchmarks
- Decide whether to sell first or buy first, and ask your lender about bridge financing
- Audit your job security and emergency fund before signing off on a bigger mortgage
If your income is stable and the net gap still works at higher rates, this could be a rare window to move up. If your budget is already stretched thin, take comfort in a calmer market — you finally have the breathing room to wait for the right home instead of rushing in.
As Kottick told The Canadian Press, a rate increase “may give some buyers pause,” but more balanced conditions are giving buyers greater choice and room to negotiate.
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Amy Tokic is an SEO content editor for Money.ca. She holds a B.A. in Communications from the University of Windsor. Amy is an award-winning author and has been writing professionally for 15 years, publishing articles in the lifestyle and health sectors.
