Oct 20, 2026
Ontario Premier Doug Ford has spent much of the trade war warning that Ontario could cut off the electricity it sends to American homes and businesses. He repeated the threat as recently as this summer.
This winter, some of that power will be flowing the other way, as Ontario’s grid operator has signed a six-month deal to import electricity capacity from a U.S. company, starting Nov. 1.
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One energy consultancy says deals like this are unusual for Ontario, but the grid operator calls this one routine. For Ontario households, the bigger question is who pays, and how much. The answer is less dramatic than the headlines, but you will see changes to your winter hydro bill.
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Why is Ontario importing U.S. power after threatening to cut it off?
The Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO), the agency that balances Ontario’s power grid, announced on Oct. 1 a six-month contract with U.S.-based Alpha Generation for 600 MW from New York, starting Nov. 1. The IESO says the deal is part of typical planning to cover maintenance and winter peak demand.
But Power Advisory, an energy consultancy, noted that bilateral deals like this haven’t been common practice in Ontario.
So why does Ontario need backup supply? In its latest reliability outlook, the IESO had already flagged a series of nuclear outages, including the shutdown of Pickering’s ‘B’ units starting this month.
Its annual auction for standby supply also came up short. The IESO secured 1,125 MW for winter 2026-27, short of its target of 1,200 MW. Power Advisory also reported that the auction’s winter price hit $725 per megawatt per business day, the highest capacity price on record in Ontario.
The IESO also points out that Ontario remains a net seller: the province is currently exporting about seven times as much electricity as it imported in all of 2025.
The politics are harder to wave away. In March 2025, Premier Ford said that if the U.S. escalated he would ”not hesitate to cut the electricity off completely.” Jack Gibbons, chair of the Ontario Clean Air Alliance, an environmental advocacy group, called the new deal “very ironic.”
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Will the import deal push up your hydro bill?
The announcement didn’t disclose the cost of the agreement.
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Here’s what we can say. Capacity costs like this are part of the overall system costs that ratepayers ultimately pay. For scale, the IESO says its entire 2025 capacity auction represents about 1% of total system costs. A single 600 MW contract is unlikely to significantly impact a typical household bill on its own, but without a price, that remains an informed estimate rather than a fact.
Timing is also a factor. The Ontario Energy Board (OEB), the province’s independent energy regulator, sets prices from a 12-month cost forecast and adjusts for past shortfalls or surpluses. If winter costs run higher than forecast, the difference could surface in future prices rather than on this winter’s bills.
What’s actually changing on your bill Nov. 1?
The more certain change comes from Ontario’s regulators and government, not New York.
On Nov. 1, the OEB will lower rates across all three pricing plans available to Ontario households:
- Time-of-use (TOU): The price you pay depends on when you use power. Off-peak drops to 9.1 cents per kilowatt hour (kWh) from 9.8 cents, and on-peak to 18.9 cents from 20.3 cents
- Tiered: You pay a flat rate up to a monthly limit, then a higher rate after that. The first 1,000 kWh will cost 11.2 cents per kWh, down from 12 cents
- Ultra-low overnight (ULO): This plan has the cheapest and the most expensive hours. It charges 3.7 cents from 11 pm to 7 am, but 37.7 cents on weekdays from 4 pm to 9 pm
But the province is also shrinking the Ontario Electricity Rebate (OER), which drops to 15.7% from 23.5%. For a typical household using 700 kWh a month, the rebate will be worth about $23 a month. Lower prices will largely offset a smaller rebate, so the OEB expects total bills to keep rising at roughly the same pace as in previous years.
What to do now
You can’t control what Ontario pays for imported power. What you can control is how and when you buy yours.
- Use the OEB’s bill calculator to compare all three plans against your actual usage
- Consider ULO if your usage is flexible. It suits EV owners and households that can run laundry and dishwashers overnight. It can backfire for families who cook and run appliances in the evening
- Consider tiered pricing if you’re home all day. In winter, the lower-price threshold rises to 1,000 kWh from 600 kWh a month, which can help electrically heated homes and people who work from home
- On TOU, move non-urgent chores off-peak, which runs weekdays from 7 pm to 7 am, plus all day on weekends and holidays
- Ask for help early. Low-income households can check the OEB’s bill assistance programs.
Keep an eye on how the import deal unfolds. If the IESO discloses its price, or this year’s capacity auction comes up short again, it would show whether short-term fixes like this are becoming routine. As for your bill this winter, your price plan and your power-use habits are where the savings are.
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Leslie Kennedy served as an editor at Thomson Reuters and for Star Media Group, followed by a number of years as a writer and editor and content manager in marketing communications, before returning to her editorial roots. She is a graduate of Humber College’s post-graduate journalism program and has been a professional writer and editor ever since.
