Nov 13, 2026
For more than a decade, John May and his wife Patti spent their winters in Florida. Then, last year, the 73-year-old from the Ottawa suburb of Manotick, Ontario, simply stopped going. He says the mood had turned toxic as U.S. President Donald Trump took aim at Canada.
May was encouraged by the Democrats’ Nov. 3 U.S. midterm victories, which gave the party control of both chambers of Congress. But he told CBC News he and Patti aren’t ready to head south yet. He thinks it could take a couple more years.
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May isn’t the only one wondering if it’s time to head back. But the data, the dollar and the border rules haven’t shifted nearly as much as the political mood. Before you rush to rebook that winter escape, take a step back and separate the politics from the price tag.
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How much has Canadian travel to the U.S. recovered?
The recovery is real but small. Canadians took 1.9 million trips to the U.S. by car and plane in October, up 3% from October 2025, according to preliminary data from Statistics Canada. That makes seven straight months of year-over-year growth.
Even so, the recovery has a steep climb ahead after starting from such a deep hole. Return trips from the U.S. fell about 25% in 2025. In October, car trips were still 29% below October 2024, and air trips were down 19.6%. In July 2025, crossings plunged by nearly a third compared to the year before — a drop seen only once since digital tracking began in 1972, back in September 2001.
One caveat: StatCan is phasing NEXUS highway traveller data into its counts from August 2026 to January 2027 and warns that this may affect comparisons with earlier years.
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Are the midterm results bringing Canadians back?
Not yet, at least in a way that’s measurable. McKenzie McMillan, a travel consultant and co-owner of The Travel Group in Vancouver, told CBC she’s hearing anecdotal signs of softening. Still, that curiosity hasn’t translated into actual bookings, with plenty of clients opting to spend their winter elsewhere. Air Canada and Porter Airlines told CBC it’s too early to see a midterm effect, and Air Transat said it doesn’t have enough data to spot a trend.
Much of it comes down to timing. The new Congress doesn’t take office until January. Some Canadians also remain wary of the administration’s immigration crackdown, which has led to the detention of several Canadian citizens in recent months.
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Still, the mood is shifting. Mary Thurber, 70, of Lake Country, British Columbia, told CBC that a U.S. trip is now being actively discussed at home, even though she isn’t sure when she’ll feel comfortable going.
What does a U.S. trip cost Canadians right now?
The baseline is set by exchange rates. The loonie touched about CA$1.39 per US$1 on Nov. 4, its strongest level since September, as the U.S. dollar slipped after the midterms, according to Trading Economics. Even so, US$2,000 in Florida costs roughly CA$2,780 before any fees.
Card fees can pile on even more. Many Canadian credit cards charge a foreign transaction fee on U.S. purchases, so check your card’s terms before you go.
For older travellers, healthcare costs are the bigger risk. Provincial health plans typically cover only a small share of U.S. medical bills, which is why travel medical insurance belongs in your trip budget rather than on a maybe list.
What should snowbirds know before a long winter stay?
If you plan to stay for a month or more, there’s paperwork to be filled out. Canadians visiting the U.S. for more than 30 days must register with the U.S. government, according to the Government of Canada’s travel advice. Travellers who don’t comply could face fines and misdemeanour prosecution.
What to do now
- Check the Government of Canada’s U.S. travel advice before you book and again before you leave
- Price out your trip in Canadian dollars, exchange rate included
- Use a credit card with no foreign transaction fees, if you have one
- Get travel medical insurance before you leave
- Register with U.S. authorities if you’ll be staying 30 days or more
- Sign up for the Government of Canada’s Registration of Canadians Abroad service
- Weigh the full cost against a domestic or alternative winter getaway
Whether the midterms change your plans is a personal call. The math, though, is the same either way. If the trip still makes sense once it’s priced in loonies, insured, and registered, it’s a financial decision — not a political one. As Jill Ellis-Worthington, 65, of London, Ont., who recently made her first U.S. trip since 2024, told CBC, many Canadians feel “there might be some light on the horizon.”
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Amy Tokic is an SEO content editor for Money.ca. She holds a B.A. in Communications from the University of Windsor. Amy is an award-winning author and has been writing professionally for 15 years, publishing articles in the lifestyle and health sectors.
