An interesting year on many fronts – financial and societal. But have I learned anything I can use in the future? From a financial perspective, I very strongly believe we are going to get more of the same in 2013 that we had in 2012 – notwithstanding the “fiscal cliff” nonsense taking place in the Untied States (deliberate). Resolved or not, my best assessment is that world markets will be slightly chaotic for at least the next 2 years before some level of stability re-appears. Am I psychic?? Absolutely not – but I am a fiscal realist. On a relative basis, Canada is better off that just about everwhere in the world with the exception of New Zealand. For my younger audience, NZ did go bankrupt as a country about 30 years ago – and ever since have kept things fiscally responsible.
Canada may be the best of a bad lot, but we are certainly not having the country’s finances managed in any way, shape or form in a conservative manner. Quite frankly (and I am not, have not been and never expect to be a member of ANY political party), our proclivite spending habits are much more reminiscent of Liberal and NDP spending patterns.
Over the past 18 months or so, there has been a real shift around the world to a more socialistic approach to all levels of government. Citizens of all countries are demanding more services and support from their governments yet no-one wants to pay the price. It is the same in North America, Europe, South America, the Far,Middle and Near-Easts plus the former Soviet states, the Indian sub-continent and Australasia. The people in the Sahara and sub-Saharan regions in Africa are facing even more serious issues of civil wars and genocoide, on one or more levels. The Scandinavian folks are much quieter about things in their part of the world, but they are facing the same issues as the rest of the Eurozone as our our friends in Iceland.
Governments have no money, unless they print more – which brings inflation back into the picture in a big way – something no-one in the world can afford. Some parts of South America are dealing with double-digit inflation now – but on a WEEKLY basis – not annually! So with no money for governments to spend, national debts are growing in leaps and bounds (regardless of the “blue” colours of some leaders), from where does the money originate?
People are still hesitant to invest for the long-term and are spooked every time a politician anywhere in the world, talks about defaulting, restructuring, devaluing or cutting deficits without raising taxes. All of which makes for choppy markets. Yes the Warren Buffet’s and George Soros’ of this world will always make money, because they take the long view.
I haven’t mentioned China and South Korea (or the rest of the Asian-Pacific Rim countries) because despite generally higher levels of “state” control over their economies, they are in no better shape. Closed and partly closed economies may appear to be doing better, but we never really see the complete truth – so in the absence of clarity, investors tend to shy away from them as well.
So what to do now? Stay happy and think positive thoughts! Stay short on the fixed-income side of things and use GIC or GIA ladders to protect yourself against upward movement in rates. Keep at least 5% to 7% in cash. In equities, for less than 15 years holding, stay with large caps that have good dividend histories, or mutual funds/seg funds that hold those stocks. For 15 years and longer – right now, your guess is as good as anyone’s! Have a safe and happy Christmas Season! Cheers Ian