Hot pocket communities
The 10-year average for sales in the GTA is just over 92,000, annually. Given last year's drop to 66,000 sales and just over 75,000 homes sold in 2022, the region's real estate market has seen a shortfall of 43,000 sales over the past two years, alone, according to the report.
The same argument can be made for the GVA, where sales have typically averaged over 33,000 annually, over the past decade. Over 26,000 homes sold last year, compared to 29,000 in 2022 — which is about 11,000 short of the norm.
"While buying intentions slowed, new household formation, lifecycle events, immigration and population growth have continued," Alexander said. "The right conditions will undoubtedly unleash demand. Meantime, certain neighbourhoods have proven stronger than others."
Top 5 markets (for detached home price gains)
- Squamish, BC —14.2%
- Burnaby, BC — 10.8%
- Scugog, ON — 9.3%
- Toronto W08 region, which includes Islington-City Centre West, Etobicoke West Mall, Markland Wood, Eringate-Centennial-West Deane, Princess Rosethorn, Edenbridge-Humber Valley and Kingsway South — 9.1%
- Port Coquitlam, BC — 8.6%
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Blue-chip neighbourhoods — communities in high demand with potential buyers — remain robust, with home-buying activity in Toronto neighbourhoods of Leaside, Rosedale and the Kingsway are higher than year-ago levels. Popular Toronto neighourhood, The Beaches and Vancouver's Vancouver West community experienced an uptick in detached values year-over-year.
Also seeing healthy activity are the chronically undersupplied micro-markets in Toronto's downtown and midtown, with multiple offers being a frequent occurrence. Unlike 2021/2022, accepted offers were rarely over list price.
Durham Region is the Greater Toronto Area's most affordable district for detached housing, with average prices under $1 million in multiple communities. Softer housing values north of the GTA have sparked an increase in demand in more affordable areas including Newmarket and Stouffville.
Overall trade-up buyers are taking advantage of lower values to take the next step in home ownership, especially in the top end of the GTA. Detached housing sales over the $5-million price point in the Greater Toronto Area are up close to 19%, with 127 detached home sales reported in the GTA in the first six months of the year, compared to 107 sold during the same period in 2023.
However, taxes remain an obstacle, particularly in Greater Vancouver where both residents and non-residents are faced with the city's empty house tax. On a vacant $1.5-million property that is not a principal residence, the 3.5% rate would bring the annual tax bill to $52,500.
Sources
1. Remax report
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