Double-digit condo inventory increases in most major centres

Canadian condo inventories

Growth in inventory levels was highest in the Fraser Valley (58.7%), followed by Greater Toronto (52.8%), Calgary (52.4%), Ottawa (44.5%), Edmonton (17.7%), Halifax Regional Municipality (8.1%) and Vancouver (7.3%).

Value gains have been posted in Calgary (15%), Edmonton (4%), Ottawa (2.3%), Vancouver (1.9%), Fraser Valley (1.9%) and Halifax (1.2%). In Greater Toronto, the average price fell 2% short of a year ago.

According to RE/MAX, Edmonton and Calgary remain firmly entrenched in seller's market territory, while conditions are more balanced in Greater Vancouver, Fraser Valley, Ottawa and Halifax. These markets will likely transition in 2025. Toronto may be the last to emerge from more sluggish conditions, however, Alexander notes that it's a market that has been known to turn quickly. RE/MAX also notes that prices have likely bottomed out in Toronto.

"Even in softer markets, hot pockets tend to emerge. In the condominium segment we're seeing a diverse mix among the most in-demand areas, ranging from traditional blue-chip communities to gentrifying up-and-comers, as well as suburban hot spots,” Alexander said.

“Condominiums in choice recreational areas were among the markets posting stronger sales activity — a trend that was also reflected in our single-detached housing report issued earlier this year."

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Condo sales

The average condo prices across the seven markets in 2024 are as follows:

• Greater Vancouver: $823,550
• Greater Toronto Area: $732,648
• Fraser Valley: $559,215
• Halifax: $484,491
• Ottawa: $447,042
• Calgary: $347,203
• Edmonton: $200,951

Sales were robust in Alberta, which RE/MAX attributed to in-migration from other parts of the country. Edmonton led the way in terms of percentage increase in the number of condos sold, up just close to 37% from one year ago, marking the region's best performance in the previous five-year period.

This is followed by a more tempered Calgary market, which was up 2.6% over 2023. Remaining markets saw home-buying activity soften in the condominium sector.

At the same time, there are condominium pockets that defied overall trends in each market. For example, in the Greater Toronto Area, condominium sales were up by double digits in the first eight months of 2024 in midtown communities such as Yonge-Eglinton, Humewood-Cedarvale and Forest Hill South, where activity increased 25.3% (114 condo sales in 2024 compared to 91 sales in 2023).

There’s also Bedford-Park-Nortown, Lawrence Park and Forest Hill North, which rose 13.3%. The west end's High Park, South Parkdale, Swansea and Roncesvalles communities experienced a 15.7% upswing in units sold. Other neighbourhoods including High Park North, Junction, Lambton Baby Point and Runnymede-Bloor West Village climbed 25.2%. In the east end, the Beaches reported 20.3% in sales activity.

"In many markets, end users are in the driver's seat right now. While investors are an important part of the purchaser pool, this point in time is a unique opportunity for aspiring condominium buyers who, for a short window of time, will likely see less competition from investors and a better supply of product,” Alexander said.

“This is especially true in Toronto and Vancouver, where the impact of monetary policy has hit investor profit margins to a greater extent despite high rent and low vacancy rates. With values set to rise, this is arguably the most favourable climate condominiums buyers have seen in recent years."

Condo investment temperature check

RE/MAX found that investor activity has stalled in most markets. The slowdown has been most notable in Greater Toronto, where up to 30% of investors have experienced negative cashflow on rental properties as mortgage carrying costs climbed, according to analytics by Urbanation and CIBC Economics. However, Edmonton bucked the trend in investor pullback.

Affordability has been a significant draw for out-of-province investors, particularly those from Ontario and BC. who are seeking opportunities further afield to bulk up their portfolios. Out-of-province developers and builders have been similarly motivated by Edmonton's lower development costs and lack of red tape. Halifax, to a lesser extent, has drawn investor interest, with affordability, low vacancy rates and upward pressure on rents being the primary factor behind the city's appeal.

"The housing mix is evolving very quickly as a result of densification and urbanization. Condominiums now represent the heart of our largest cities, and it is inevitable that further development will see condos become the driving force accounting for the lion's share of sales in years to come," Alexander said.

"It's a physical and cultural shift that Canadians are not only adjusting to but are embracing, as younger generations redefine urban neighbourhoods, sparking demand for vibrant and robust amenities, infusing new life in Canada's urban cores in the process."

Sources

1. RE/MAX Canada: RE/MAX’s Canada Condominium Report (2024)