Greedflation in Canada report 2025

How corporate profits and Trump’s tariffs are shrinking Canadian budgets

Inflation is a whole lot more than just hot air. Rising costs erode your savings and purchasing power, creating a heightened sense of vulnerability in your wallet and bank account. If you're feeling the pinch, you're not alone – but what if the real culprit isn't just traditional inflation but corporate opportunism?

2025 greedflation study key findings:

• Inflation was down to 1.7% in April 2025, but food prices are still rising at 3.8%
• Bread prices are up 51% in three years, now $3.48 per loaf
• Trump's 25% tariffs on Canadian goods are creating market disruption
• Energy prices dropped 12.7% while food costs continue climbing
• Loblaw warns 10% of products could see 25 %+ price increases this year
• Corporate profits soared during the pandemic and remain elevated
• Canada is heavily dependent on US food imports (55% of total)

What is greedflation?

Greedflation is where companies take advantage of inflation to raise prices more than necessary — using brand patches to artificially inflate that hot air balloon rate from dropping.  

The term “greedflation” (also known as markup growth) was often dismissed by economists, academics and government officials as 'a convenient political meme,' prior to Covid, but the perfect storm of supply chain disruptions, CERB and other support programs providing fiscal stimulus and a rapidly changing socio-economic environment fueled corporate profits despite dwindling consumer confidence. 

But fortunately, those days of high prices and runaway inflation are all over – right?

Inflation continues to fall post-pandemic

The good news is that inflation continues to fall. From a pandemic high of 7.7% in early 2022, the official inflation rate in Canada now hovers around 1.7%, levels not seen in years. 

But while inflation is back in check, food prices in Canada remain elevated. In fact, they’re ballooning, with prices rising quickly – and expected to explode in the summer.

In 2022, the average price of a loaf of bread in Canada was around $2.50. The year prior, that same loaf would have cost $2.30, a one-year price hike of 20 cents. Today that same loaf costs a dizzying $3.48, a total increase of 51% in just three years. 

The reasons? Corporate greed and another form of greedflation, this time from south of the border: the Trump tariffs. 

Trump's tariffs: Timeline of economic destruction

If you're trying to make sense of recent price increases, you need to understand the impact of Trump's tariff policies. These tariffs have created significant disruption in North American supply chains, with projections indicating Canada's economy could be 2.3% smaller in the long run due to these aggressive and reactionary trade policies.

Here's a timeline of key dates in the US tariffs saga:

• January 20, 2025: Hours after inauguration, Trump announced 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico
• March 4, 2025: 25% tariffs on most Canadian goods and 10% tariffs on Canadian energy resources took effect
• March 6, 2025: USMCA-compliant goods (approximately 38% of imports from Canada) received exemptions

The real impact on Canadian consumers

The economic data paints a concerning picture:

• Canada's merchandise trade balance has shifted from a surplus to a deficit of $1.5 billion as of February 2025
• Over 80% of businesses in rural areas plan to raise prices in 2025
• Approximately 85% of larger Canadian companies anticipate price increases

Think of these tariffs as a domino effect that ripples through the entire economy, with you – the consumer – at the receiving end of the chain.

Regional differences

Canada's CPI was up 1.7% in April 2025 compared to April 2024, but the impact varies significantly by province:

• Quebec leads with the highest inflation rate at 2.2%
• Manitoba follows at 2.1%
• British Columbia is at 2.0%
• Saskatchewan is at 1.9%, and 
• Ontario is at 1.6%

But the prices can vary widely, even within provinces. Take British Columbia, where Vancouver experienced higher inflation (2.2%) than Victoria (1.9%), showing how even within provinces, your location affects how much more you're paying.

Food vs. fuel: The great price disparity

The most revealing evidence of potential greedflation comes from comparing food and energy prices:

Food prices: Consistently rising

Food inflation continues to outpace overall inflation, with grocery prices rising 3.8% year-over-year in April 2025 – more than double the overall inflation rate of 1.7%. The breakdown is even more concerning:

That tasty beef sirloin you bought for a fun, neighbourhood backyard BBQ in 2019 cost around $16/kg. At the time, you opted to be a good neighbour and share the wealth. Five years later, in April 2024, you’re forking over $21.46 for that same sirloin. Now, one year later,  it’s over TEN DOLLARS more per kilo, or $32.81, and suddenly your backyard BBQ extravaganza needs a $5 entry fee (or a tip jar)  to break even. 

There’s no end in sight either, as prices continue to increase — Canada's Food Price Report forecasts food price increases between 3% and 5% for 2025, pushing the average family of four's annual food expenditure to $16,833.67—an increase of up to $801.56 from last year.

Energy prices: Dramatic declines

If food greedflation is a real thing, how do we describe what’s going on with fuel prices?

In stark contrast, energy prices have plummeted, falling 12.7% year-over-year in April 2025. Gasoline prices have shown the most dramatic shift, dropping 18.1% year-over-year in April 2025.

This decline is primarily due to the federal government's decision to eliminate the consumer carbon tax effective April 1, 2025, which removed approximately 17.6 cents per litre of gasoline. 

Additionally, OPEC+ has increased oil production, sending prices to around $60 per barrel—a four-year low. This increase in crude oil production is designed to flood the market, destroying the profit margins of other oil-producing nations. 

What makes this greed different, however, is how it impacts consumers. Instead of prices soaring, energy prices are cratering worldwide.Current prices ($1.42-1.45/litre) represent approximately a 22% decrease from 2024.

It’s greedflation, just in reverse. 

The US dependency factor

The United States is by far the dominant source of Canada's imported food, with approximately 55% of all Canadian agri-food and seafood imports originating from south of the border. This substantial dependency explains why tariffs have such an immediate impact on Canadian grocery prices.

The dependency varies by product category:

• Baked goods: 75.1% come from the US
• Vegetables and fruits: High dependency with US exports to Canada valued at over $2.2 billion each
• Meat products: Imports valued at $1.65 billion

And retailers are warning about price hikes due to that close relationship with US food producers. Loblaw has identified 6,000 products (that’s nearly 10% of all items sold at the chain) that are subject to US tariffs and this, likely to see price increases of 25% or more in the near future. 

Are retailers taking advantage?

So, are merchants and brands cashing in on their customers? There's evidence to suggest some retailers may use tariffs as cover for disproportionate price increases. 

Remember the Loblaw bread price-fixing scandal? 

The company, which holds a 28% market share in Canadian groceries, recently received a $500 million class-action settlement after it was shown that Canadians were overcharged for bread due to an industry-wide price-fixing scheme spanning more than a decade.

According to the Competition Bureau, this scheme added at least $1.50 to the price of a loaf of bread during this period, effectively defrauding millions of Canadian consumers.

Even on legitimately tariff-affected products, there's significant potential for disproportionate increases. A 10% tariff on a component that represents only 30% of a product's cost doesn't justify a 10% increase in the final retail price, yet this is often what consumers experience.

"What we're seeing isn't traditional inflation anymore. It's corporations using global events—first the pandemic, now Trump's tariffs—as cover to pad their profit margins while Canadians struggle to put food on the table."

Cory Santos, report author

Corporate profits continue to soar

Corporate Canada experienced a dramatic financial journey during the pandemic. After initially nosediving in 2020, profits surged an astonishing 58.3% in 2021 followed by another 19.5% jump in 2022. This wasn't just a recovery—it was a profit explosion that pushed corporate earnings to their highest share of GDP in modern Canadian history.

The official figures show a decline in corporate profits the last few years:

A June 2024 study by Canadians for Tax Fairness study found that corporations contributed to inflation and the cost-of-living crisis by increasing their profit margins during the pandemic.

After initial price shocks legitimately increased costs in certain sectors, companies then implemented price increases throughout supply chains that exceeded their actual cost increases.

Basically corporations didn't just match their higher input costs – they added extra percentage points to expand their profit margins while Canadian households struggled financially.

But not only did firms increase their profit margins significantly during the Covid pandemic, they then kept them there, before beginning another price creep as a result of tariffs. The same study found that profit margins were above the pre-pandemic levels in 18 of the 21 largest non-financial industries in the country in 2023.

And if you're wondering which sectors benefited most from this profit boom, look no further than energy and banking. While all industries saw margin improvements between 2020-2022, energy companies watched their profit margins nearly triple from 4.2% to 12.4%. Banking wasn't far behind, with margins expanding from 12.7% to 16.9% during the same period.

How to fight back against greedflation

In the era of greedflation and corporate profiteering, financial education is more important than ever. Equip yourself with knowledge and tools to navigate the complex financial landscape, protect your finances and make informed decisions for their economic well-being.

Beyond financial education, the following strategies can help protect your finances:

• Develop a comprehensive budget that accounts for changes in costs and regularly review and adjust spending to maximize resources
• Research alternative or low-risk investment products, services and retailers for more affordable options
  
• Don't be afraid to negotiate with service providers, landlords, or retailers to ensure you're paying a fair price
  
• Focus on paying down existing credit card balances
  
• Look into high-yield savings accounts to accelerate savings to help create an emergency savings to cushion against unexpected financial shocks
  
• Invest in inflation-resistant assets like gold, silver or inflation-indexed bonds to diversify your finances
  
• Support businesses that are dedicated to fair pricing and responsible behaviour
  

Finally, Canadians can use advocacy and collective action to drive positive change and hold corporations accountable for their actions. This can include shifting your spending to companies that demonstrate a commitment to fair pricing and responsible corporate behaviour, contacting local, provincial and federal representatives to voice your concerns about the impact of greedflation, or even joining local consumer advocacy groups to help improve community financial education.

Summary

The stark contrast between plummeting energy prices and soaring food costs exposes Canada's two-speed inflation environment. Energy prices have dropped 12.7% year-over-year thanks to carbon tax removal and global market shifts, while food prices continue climbing at 3.8% – more than double the overall inflation rate of 1.7%.

This isn't coincidental. Corporate profits in retail and grocery sectors have increased during tariff implementation despite economic challenges. Loblaw has warned that price increases could reach 25% on affected products.

The timing is revealing. Canada's highest food inflation (9.78% in 2022) perfectly aligned with the period of greatest corporate profit growth. Now a similar pattern emerges with tariffs – corporations raise prices quickly during disruptions but reduce them slowly when costs decrease.

Sources

1. 1 Statistics Canada. (2025). Consumer Price Index, monthly, not seasonally adjusted. 
2. 2 Statistics Canada. (2025, May 20). Consumer Price Index: Annual review, 2024. 
3. 3 Statistics Canada. (2025). Food prices in Canada. 
4. 4 United States Department of Agriculture. (2022). Retail Foods Report - Canada. 
5. 5 Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. (2025). Canada’s Food Security Dependencies. 
6. 6 Canadians for Tax Fairness. (2025). As Profits Rise, Investment Stalls: Canada’s Affordability Crisis.
7. 7 Dalhousie University. (2025). Canada’s Food Price Report 2025

Cory Santos Credit card editor

Cory Santos Credit card editor

Cory Santos is a finance writer, editor and credit card expert with nearly a decade of experience in personal finance. Cory joined Wise Publishing from BestCards, with bylines in numerous print and digital publications across North America, including the Miami Herald, BlogTO, Debt.ca, AOL, MSN and Medium as well as financial podcasts like KOFE Talk. He's also the creator and author of the annual Money.ca Credit Card Awards.

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